The tide of unemployment rises silently, and the vultures of capital are sharpening their beaks on the crypto reefs — Crow Brother's trading log.
Latest Battle Report
The latest data from the US Labor Department shows that as of the week ending June 8, initial claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 242,000, far exceeding the expected 225,000 and marking the highest level since August last year! More critically—this is the fourth consecutive week of increases, revealing significant weakness.
Based on market impact
Once the data came out, the dollar index immediately smashed through 104.5, and US bond yields plummeted. The market instantaneously priced in: economic cooling accelerates → betting on Fed rate cuts skyrockets! The probability of a rate cut in September soared to over 70%, and the probability for November approached 90%—the 'bloody smell' of liquidity easing is thickening.
Personally, I think
Brothers, remember this iron rule: especially in crypto, Bitcoin is a bloodthirsty shark that only recognizes liquidity! The continuous rise in initial claims for four weeks is no coincidence:
Economic 'Cough' Confirmation: The wave of layoffs in the technology and finance sectors has not stopped, and the weakness on the consumption side has already transmitted to the job market. The foundation of the Federal Reserve's 'high-pressure anti-inflation' is beginning to weaken.
Expectation Game Reversal: Compared to last October's strong initial claims, when Bitcoin plummeted to 25k, now the worse the data, the stronger the interest rate cut expectations. The 'bad news is good news' crypto counter-logic is officially activated.
According to the latest liquidity news
After the data was released, although Bitcoin did not violently surge, it held steady at 67,000 and tested the 67,500 resistance level multiple times. Ethereum is gaining momentum.
Key Signal: Bullish bets in the crypto options market are surging, institutions are quietly positioning for loosening expectations in the second half of the year.
Crow Brother's Risk Alarm:
1 Data Trap: Initial claims are highly volatile; next Friday's non-farm payrolls + CPI are the real battle! If the data reverses, a hawkish counterattack will trigger a seismic shock.
2 Hard Landing Panic: If unemployment is not 'mild' but a 'collapse', liquidity expectations won't save the market from a crash.
The Federal Reserve's 'hawkish skin' has been torn open by the initial claims with four bloody gashes! This wave of crypto counterattack driven by the 'unemployment tide'—is it a 'flash in the pan' or a 'bull market precursor' $ETH #美国初请失业金人数
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