1 Current core contradiction in the market

Long and short are tangled at 103950: the latest transaction price repeatedly jumps around 103950.59, large orders show a 'long and short double kill' pattern, indicating fierce competition among main funds here

Liquidation dense area locked at 103950: The marked 'liquidation' area is at 103950.09, where a large number of leveraged positions accumulate. Once it breaks, it will trigger a chain reaction of forced liquidations, forming a 'death spiral'

2 Key positions: Defense and butcher knife

Ironclad support level: 103900-103950
Liquidation chip dense area + multiple dips and rebounds constitute the last line of defense. If it breaks down with volume, the shorts will rush to 102000

High-pressure minefield: 104000-105000
There are two major historical selling pressure points at 105000 and 107000 above, especially 105000 has failed to break through multiple times, requiring huge buying to breakthrough

3 Bollinger Bands hide danger

Although the Bollinger Bands are not displayed, the price continues to oscillate closely around the mid-track of 104000, showing a 'contraction change' signal:

Stand firm at 104000: upper track opens upwards, hitting 105000

Losing 103900: lower track cracks down, likely to fall to 102000

Can we stand firm at 104000 tonight?

Probability less than 40%! Reason:

Liquidation gravity: the main force has the motivation to smash through 103900 to trigger long position stop losses, harvesting leveraged funds

Volume divergence: The latest transaction shows '0.00 USDT' short order testing (liquidity exhaustion), the continuity of buy orders is doubtful.

Time window: If there is no volume surge in the U.S. session on June 6, the weekend liquidity shortage is likely to trigger a flash crash

Retail survival strategy:

Aggressive: Lightly long at 103900, stop loss at 103800, target 104500

Conservative: Breakthrough 104300 to chase long, or break below 103800 to go short, quick in and out

Life and death line: Strictly guard 103900, breaking means fleeing for life

Tonight's note: The main force's butcher knife is hanging over the head, 104000 is not only a technical level but also a meat grinder of long and short beliefs — either blood flows like a river or one is left wailing



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