The Trump and Old Horse Incident is becoming increasingly intense, is the market really in a precarious situation?
1. News
1. Market News
From the market situation: The market's news on Wednesday regarding the small non-farm payroll data showed a significant decline, leading to some concerns about the large non-farm payroll data on Friday. There is a belief that the market may experience a major reversal in either direction, especially if the downward momentum follows the trend of the small non-farm data. On Friday, there is a high probability of unfavorable data, which would be negative for the US dollar and US stocks, while being positive for interest rate cuts, leading to a cyclical trend of short-term declines and long-term gains. Therefore, prices may rise due to favorable data in June, approaching the 120,000 mark. Conversely, if the data is favorable, prices will likely fall below the 100,000 mark. Thus, tomorrow's news will be our final showdown in the market, and a new direction will emerge.
2. Institutional Situation
From the institutional data: The market's trend has weakened in the lead-up to the data release, with buying pressure reducing as many institutions and traders prefer to wait or primarily take profits. According to BlackRock's data, buying activity has also weakened in the past two days as the market awaits the non-farm payroll data on Friday. Therefore, the institutional data released tonight is crucial for analyzing tomorrow's market trends, and we will wait for tomorrow's data to observe the large non-farm situation tonight.
3. Market Sentiment
From the perspective of market sentiment: the market sentiment value has significantly dropped from 76 to 55, indicating a noticeable decline in price as well. The key question is whether the market sentiment value will reach a bottom or continue to decline, which will depend on tomorrow's data trends. Therefore, it is important to pay close attention to the large non-farm data situation. #美国加征关税 $SOL
