Today, it's still necessary to complain about the market these days; it's a market that even dogs don't want to touch. There is almost no liquidity, and the price fluctuation range is absurdly small. Is the liquidation zone locking the market down? Or did the market die first, causing the liquidation zone to shrink to this terrible state?
I'll give you the conclusion first. In my view, the market for the next couple of days is like this. If it goes up, it might reach 108K at most; if it goes down, hitting 101K directly is not a problem.
From the perspective of liquidation intensity, the force of clearing downwards is obviously stronger. But the problem is, the price is still stubbornly holding above 103.6K from June 2nd; you say it’s oscillating, and it really doesn’t move like a mountain.
So the current strategy is simple: if the price hits the bottom in the liquidation zone but hasn't burst the longs, then don't hesitate, rush towards 108K! On the contrary, the same logic applies above; if it needs to be liquidated, there will definitely be a reversal, those who understand know.
To be honest, I’m quite speechless about the current market. Every time non-farm week comes, the market feels like it’s holding a memorial service in advance: dead silent, reduced volume, and sideways movement, giving no imagination at all. You say you’re sideways, it should have some basis, but every day it just plays dead.
And there’s a more realistic problem ahead. The first is liquidity; since May 24th, it’s like the faucet has been turned off, and daily trading volume has become ghostly. Secondly, the main force has already finished unloading; after May 22nd, large holders have basically run away by 85%, so don’t think they will come back to lift the market.
Thirdly, the long-short ratio has skyrocketed. Since May 31st, more and more people are bullish, yet the market has become increasingly suffocating; this is a typical case of being unable to rise, and no one wants to short.
Moreover, the situation with ETH is not optimistic either. The main contract has already emptied out around 2700. But a large number of institutions are increasing their spot holdings, making the market look strong, but it’s actually a false prosperity that could be dragged down by Bitcoin at any time.
So why am I pessimistic about the market in July and August? It’s simple, don’t even think about interest rate cuts. If they do cut, it might actually be the last chance to enter the golden pit. No one wants to push a truckload of dead longs uphill before the surge, because it’s too heavy!
In fact, most of the time, Bitcoin follows the same script, yet some people still step into it. When it hits the bottom, it’s all scolding, no one dares to buy, and no one is optimistic. However, when you look back, it’s only been two months since 76K; don’t you think, ‘Damn, I should have bought back then?’
