Non-farm payroll data is about to be released, and as long as it is not particularly bad, it will be good for the market.
Before discussing the non-farm payroll data, employment and unemployment data should be the key metrics every month. However, before the tariffs are officially implemented, unless there is a significant rise in the unemployment rate, it shouldn't have much impact on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Recently, several Federal Reserve officials have made it clear that as long as the tariffs (reciprocal) are not officially implemented, the Federal Reserve may be more cautious.
Therefore, the market has given up hope for a rate cut before the third quarter, especially after the GDP data was released, which further reduced the probability of the U.S. entering an economic recession. In the short term, analysts are not discussing recession anymore.
Thus, the unemployment rate data has returned to a point where both good and bad data are considered good data. A slight increase in the unemployment rate can raise expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut without overly stimulating the topic of recession. On the other hand, a decrease in the unemployment rate indicates that the U.S. economic situation is still good, and the Federal Reserve does not plan to cut rates ahead of schedule, so a good economy can also boost investors' risk appetite.
Then there is the employment population; this data is certainly better the more it is, but the impact should not be significant as long as it is not significantly lower than expected. Additionally, there is wage change; wage growth definitely indicates good economic performance. According to the current market expectations, if it can meet expectations, it can still boost investor sentiment.
Especially since Tesla has nearly returned to $300 before the market opens, the market needs some positive news to calm emotions. Of course, if the non-farm payroll data is disastrous, it will be a tough weekend.
As for trading ideas, they will be communicated timely in small circles.
