I. Circle Listing: The Bloodsucking Scythe with a $7 Billion Valuation 🔥
Stablecoin giant Circle lands on U.S. stocks tonight, with an $11 billion financing + a $7 billion valuation, reminiscent of the Coinbase market debut in 2021.
Historical Mirror:
On the day Coinbase went public in 2021, Bitcoin peaked at $65,000, then halved to $30,000;
Now Circle arrives with the USDC ecosystem halo, as new funds siphon liquidity from the crypto circle—vulture squads have set up short positions in the futures market, waiting for retail investors to chase highs.
On-chain Alert:
Large holders' positions surged from 5.7% to 10.6% within 10 days; historical data shows: holding over 15% often accompanies severe volatility (surges at 15.5%, crashes at 16.9%);
The dealer's movements are a mystery: is hoarding for pumping or dumping? The current market is like a powder keg filled with mines.
II. Solana Pump + Political Bomb: The Dual Kill Pattern Begins to Emerge
(I) PumpFun Presale: A $5 Billion Valuation Trap for Retail Investors
The Solana ecosystem project PumpFun launches a $1 billion chip presale, deemed "clear-cut bloodsucking"—
In January, the Trump coin listing caused a 20% market crash; historical lessons indicate that star project presales often become funding black holes;
Dog Dealer's Trick: Creating wealth expectations with high valuations while actually inducing retail investors to sell BTC/ETH to take over.
(II) Chaos in American Politics: Rate Cut Rhetoric and Tariff Threats
The Fed's Dovish and Hawkish Clash: Waller asserts "no rate cut without inflation drop," but the derivatives market bets on a 100 basis point rate cut in 2024, increasing expectations divide the market volatility;
Trump's Disruption: Early morning tweet threatens to restart tariffs against China; U.S. CDS default insurance soars to 52 basis points (risk warning line), yet the SEC suddenly "renames" PoS staking, with policies flipping like casino rule changes.
III. Tug of War: Institutions Hoarding Coins vs. Retail Investors in Shock
(I) The High-Stakes Gamble of Iron-Willed Players
Japan's Metaplanet spends $117 million to buy 1,088 BTC, aiming for a total of 8,888 BTC;
The Salvadoran government picks up 8 BTC weekly, with 6,194 BTC held as a "national heirloom";
MicroStrategy, BlackRock, and other institutions continue to accumulate, with 660,000 BTC lying in ETF vaults.
(II) Ethereum's Narrative Breakthrough
Vitalik expresses, "Tenfold expansion in a year," though questioned as "pie in the sky," the market votes with its feet—ETH funds had a net inflow of $320 million last week, making the smart contract ecosystem a short-term booster.
IV. June Script: The Long and Short Stranglehold in the Blind Box
Historical Comparison:
👍 In June 2016, BTC rose 27%, starting a bull market rehearsal;
👍 In June 2022, it plummeted 37%, with LUNA's collapse acting as the fuse;Technical Weakness: RSI Divergence, MACD Death Cross, indicators like "Kidney-Deficient Old Pimp"; however, Bloomberg bets on altcoins taking off due to easing tariffs;
Ultimate Warning:
👎 Stay away from leveraged contracts; beware of "Double Kill" (first pump then dump);
👍 Pay attention to USDC liquidity and Bitcoin's $15,000 support level;
👍 Cash is King: A crash can pick up gold, chasing highs will only become cannon fodder.
Conclusion:
When Circle's bell tolls and PumpFun's chips go on sale, tonight in the crypto circle is destined to be sleepless. The dealer's scythe is already sharpened; the fate of retail investors depends on—whether to become the "sugar cane" being harvested or the "farmer" waiting for the autumn harvest.
🔥🔥🔥 The market changes every day; one must seize the right moment to act. If you are still too confused, you can follow me. I usually share cutting-edge news and practical strategies; feel free to come and discuss anytime to seize great opportunities together! 🔥🔥🔥
