1. Late-night horror: The 300-point plunge is not due to "US debt" 🔥🔥🔥

Last night, ETH plummeted from 2679 to 2379. The 300-point drop woke countless people up from their sleep.
Rumor Buster:

  • 👎 It is not a US debt crisis: Yellen’s warning occurred during the day in the Eastern Time Zone of the United States, while the plunge was concentrated in the middle of the night, and risky assets such as US stocks did not collapse synchronously;

  • 👍 It was an ETH "insider" who caused trouble: at 24:29 in the morning, a whale sell order of 106.751 ETH broke through the key support level of 2500, triggering a "long killing long" stampede.


Hard evidence on the chain:
One hour before the crash, a certain whale address transferred 18,000 ETH (about 47 million US dollars) to the exchange, clearly indicating its intention to "sell".

2. The real culprit of the plunge: the double blow of technical breakdown + human panic

1. Technical aspects of the “dam breach”

  • Fibonacci Life and Death Line：2500 is the 78.6% retracement support level of ETH, which is automatically triggered after being broken:
    Quantitative traders’ stop loss orders (e.g. 2480 preset stop loss)
    Long contract liquidation (a 300-point drop corresponds to a 10x leverage that goes directly to zero)

  • Liquidity black hole: Trading volume is sluggish during the late night hours, and millions of sell orders are enough to trigger a "flash crash", just like driving fast on an empty street, a single brake can cause the car to drift a hundred meters.

(II) The various people at the “stampede”

  • Leverage Player Graveyard:

    • 2450 point long order (10x leverage): 12% drop = liquidation

    • 2494 point short order (20x leverage): rebound 5% = forced liquidation
      Data from a certain platform: During the plunge, ETH contracts were liquidated for more than $200 million, 90% of which were long positions

  • Spot players' mentality collapsed:

    • Short-term traders: "If it falls below 2500, the trend will reverse, so sell at a loss!"

    • Long-term investors: “We managed to hold on even when the stock price dropped to 800 last year, so what’s 300 points?”

3. What does the plunge mean? Short-term pain vs. long-term logic

1. Three-level impact on the market

  1. Leverage liquidation: High-leverage speculators are "deleted with one click", and the market returns to rationality (refer to the LUNA crash in 2022, when the proportion of spot positions increased from 30% to 60%);

  2. Emotional freezing point: The Fear & Greed Index plummeted from 45 (neutral) to 28 (extreme panic), but historical data shows that when the panic value is less than 30, it is often the "golden buying point";

  3. Ecological test: The liquidation volume of DeFi protocols has surged (such as Aave ETH lending liquidations exceeding 50 million), but the leading projects have not shown systemic risks, and the USDC depegging rate is only 0.1%.

2. Unchanged long-term logic

  • Countdown to Cancun upgrade: expected to be launched in Q3 2024, EIP-4844 will reduce Layer2 costs by 10 times, and ETH demand may explode;

  • Institutional holdings are stable: Grayscale ETH Trust holds 18.5 million ETH, a 12% increase from last year; BlackRock's ETF application continues to advance;

  • Deflation is ongoing: ETH destruction in 2024 increased by 40% year-on-year, and the imbalance between supply and demand intensified.

4. Survival Guide for Retail Investors: What to Do After a Crash?

1. Emergency stop loss vs. Buddhist holding

  • If you are a leverage party：
    👍 Close your position immediately: Don’t bet on a “V-shaped rebound” (historically, only 30% of the plunges can recover the lost ground within 24 hours);
    👍Reflection and lessons: Leverage ratio > 5 times = suicide, late night time = high risk (the liquidation rate from 22:00 to 4:00 is 3 times that of daytime).

  • If you are a spot party：
    👎 Don’t cut it at the bottom: ETH’s average callback in the past three years is 25%, and this 12% is a normal fluctuation;
    👍 Cover positions in batches: set 3 levels (2300/2200/2000), and add 10% of the position for every 10% drop.

(II) Bottom-picking signals and risk warnings

  • Bullish signal：
    👍 Whales stopped selling (no more than 10,000 ETH were transferred to the exchange on the chain for 3 consecutive days);
    👍 Trading volume shrank to below $5 billion (a sign that panic selling has run its course).

  • Bearish signal：
    👎 Fall below 2200 (key level of 200-day moving average);
    👎 Bitcoin simultaneously fell below $25,000 (the market entered a full-scale panic).

5. Conclusion: The rules of survival in the cryptocurrency circle - always keep the "anti-stress principal"

Last night’s plunge once again verified the iron rule of the cryptocurrency world:

  • Leverage is a drug: with 10x leverage, 10% volatility = life or death line;

  • Panic is an opportunity: ETH plummeted 50% in March 2020, and then rose 20 times in the following 18 months;

  • Cognition is the basis for confidence: What really determines whether you can hold on to the currency is not your mentality, but the depth of your understanding of "why ETH is worth this price".

If anyone is confused by market fluctuations, doesn’t know how to deal with being trapped, or feels that they have been misled during the operation, welcome to communicate!!! 🔥🔥🔥
#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税 #币安Alpha上新

$ETH $BTC $BNB