Forecast for BTC Trends in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Key Levels:

* Resistance Level: $105,500 (4-hour Bollinger Band upper limit + concentrated short liquidation zone)

* Support Level: $103,000 (Weekly EMA30 + bullish defense line)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour MACD golden cross starting to appear under water, RSI (58) neutral to strong, if volume breaks through $105,000 it may trigger $820 million short liquidation.

Bullish and Bearish Catalysts:

* Bullish: Mexican billionaire narrative gaining traction, ETF funds flowing in at the beginning of the week, partial return of FTX compensation funds

* Bearish: EIP-7702 security crisis suppressing DeFi sentiment, potential reduction in Grayscale GBTC holdings, US dollar index rebounding to 105.2

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($103,800-$105,500): 45% (waiting for confirmation of sovereign fund movements)

* Rebound (breakthrough $105,500): 35% (requires ETF net inflow exceeding $300 million in a single day)

* Decline (break below $103,000): 20% (linked to US stock market correction + Grayscale selling pressure)

Operational Suggestions

* Short-term: Open shorts in batches within the $104,600-$105,200 range, stop loss at $105,800, target $103,200; if it急跌至$102,600, switch to long position, stop loss at $102,000.