Overview of the trend
Multi-timeframe analysis from 15 minutes to 1 day shows that BTC is in a short-term correction phase, but the mid-term trend has not been completely broken. Some technical signals suggest the possibility of a technical rebound if the current support area holds.
⸻
Technical indicators
🔹 Moving Average (MA)
• Short-term (15m–1h): MA(7) crosses down MA(25) and MA(99) → Short-term bearish signal.
• Mid-term (4h): MA(7) = 107,957 > MA(25) = 104,817 > MA(99) = 91,484 → Mid-term upward trend is still in effect.
• Long-term (1d): Short-term MA shows signs of going sideways → The market is taking a break to decide the next direction.
🔹 RSI (Relative Strength Index)
• Short frame (15m–1h): RSI below 30 → Oversold condition, potential technical rebound.
• 4h frame: RSI(6) = 37.69, RSI(12) = 52.05 → Neutral, not confirmed reversal.
• Daily frame: RSI fluctuating in the range of 27–37 → Strong selling pressure but not at panic sell levels.
🔹 MACD
• Short-term: Negative MACD but signal lines are converging → Signs of decreasing selling momentum.
• 4h frame: Positive DIF while MACD is still negative → Positive divergence signal, potential short-term reversal.
• Daily frame: Slightly positive MACD → The market is still maintaining a long-term upward trend.
🔹 Trading volume (Volume)
• Short-term: Volume is gradually decreasing → Investors are being cautious.
• 4h frame: Volume spikes above the average line → Bottom-fishing cash flow begins to enter.
Trading strategy
🟢 Spot trading (mid-term)
• Buying area: $105,000–106,000
• Entry point: $105,500 with confirmation of bullish candle and supporting volume
• Take profit (TP): $108,500
• Stop loss (SL): $104,800
• Success probability: ~65%
• Reason: Oversold RSI, strong volume increase, mid-term MA has not been broken.
🔴 Futures trading (short-term)
Scenario 1 – Open Long at support reaction
• Entry: $105,500
• TP: $107,800–108,500
• SL: $104,800
• Suggested leverage: 3–5x
• Probability: 60%
• Activation condition: Confirmed bullish candle at the support area with large volume.
Scenario 2 – Open Short at resistance
• Entry: $108,000–109,000
• TP: $106,000
• SL: $109,500
• Suggested leverage: 3–5x
• Probability: 55%
• Reason: Strong resistance in the 4h frame, negative MACD divergence.
⸻
⚠️ Risk warning
• If BTC breaks below $104,800, the risk of breaking the mid-term support structure is very high. A deep drop to $101,000–102,000 may occur.
• BTC's excessive volatility will invalidate altcoin technical analysis. Avoid high leverage and hold long positions during major news.
• Prioritize quick profit-taking, do not hold positions without clear support.
⸻
✅ Analysis validity: Within the next 24–48 hours. Continuous updates will be provided as new market developments arise.