On Wednesday, due to a decrease in pessimism regarding the U.S. economy, the dollar rose for two consecutive days, and the three major U.S. stock indices opened high but closed weakly. Bitcoin and Ethereum initially fell but later rebounded, experiencing fluctuations before rising again in the late session.
Key News:
Tariff 'Pause'
A group of radical judges appointed during the Biden administration has joined forces with conservative members retained from the Reagan era to halt all of Trump's 'Day of Liberation Tariffs', disrupting his trade policy. The previously little-known CIT organization has drawn attention, with the market initially judging that the 'Trump Tariff Era will come to an end'.
However, Goldman Sachs Chief Political Economist Alec Phillips pointed out in a report that the ruling is merely a 'bluffing farce': the Trump administration could overturn it through appeal, and there are various evasion methods available during the Supreme Court's decision period. Even if the Supreme Court upholds the original ruling, other legal tools can still be used to advance tariff policies.
Although this ruling constitutes a policy setback, it may not necessarily change the ultimate situation of America's major trading partners. Uncertainty remains, and the market and businesses still lack clear policy guidance.
Overall, this news is positive, but it is more noise than substance. It appears to pause tariffs, but Trump still has ways to advance them. Most institutions believe that this ruling temporarily alleviates market concerns about tariffs exacerbating inflation and growth pressures, stimulating buying momentum for short-term risk assets.
Of course, if the CIT ruling is later overturned, all of the above market trends will reverse. But until then, the upward trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum is temporarily stable.
Federal Reserve Dynamics
The minutes from the May FOMC meeting indicate that the Federal Reserve will maintain a wait-and-see approach, clearly signaling that it will not rapidly cut interest rates in the short term, while also expressing concerns about stagflation, particularly being vigilant about inflation risks.
As for whether the no-rate-cut stance from May will change in June or the second half of the year, it will need to be assessed comprehensively based on the direction of tariff policies, economic outlook, and various key data reports to determine the Federal Reserve's subsequent rate-cut pace.
Today's Focus
At 8:30 PM, the U.S. will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending May 24;
At 8:30 PM, the U.S. will release the revised annualized quarterly growth rate of real GDP for the first quarter, the revised annualized quarterly PCE price index for the first quarter, and the revised quarterly personal consumption expenditures for the first quarter.
