Around 7:00 AM Beijing time on Thursday, a U.S. federal court ruled to halt most of Trump's tariffs. However, by around 3:00 AM on Friday, a U.S. appellate court restored the tariffs.
The U.S. GDP growth rate for the first quarter was slightly revised to -0.2%, and the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending May 24 recorded 240,000.
Federal Reserve's Goolsbee: If tariffs can be avoided through an agreement or other means, it may return to a position where interest rate cuts are possible.
Following the news regarding the initial unemployment claims for the week of May 24, the market plummeted,
The April core PCE price index year-on-year report had little impact,
The May University of Michigan consumer core index was bearish.
The two male leads together
The White House confirmed that it was the first meeting between Trump and Powell since Trump took office, with Trump directly stating that "not lowering interest rates is a mistake"; Powell immediately clarified: The Federal Reserve only recognizes data!
The Federal Reserve stated: "Chairman Powell did not discuss his expectations for monetary policy, but emphasized that the policy path will entirely depend on incoming economic information and how that information affects the outlook. Powell also told the president that Federal Reserve officials will make decisions based entirely on prudent, objective, and non-political analysis."
Daly stated that inflation is unlikely to reach 2% this year, but significant progress has been made in controlling it. She affirmed the monetary policy and the current economic situation, believing that loosening and tax cuts are beneficial for the economy. The effectiveness of immigration policies and tariffs is questionable. Businesses are operating conservatively, and the Federal Reserve continues to monitor to promote lower inflation while the labor market remains robust. Daly also indicated that there will be no adjustments to the Federal Reserve's dual mandate for now, maintaining a stance for the people.
Federal Reserve's Logan pointed out that the labor market is performing strongly, and inflation is gradually approaching the 2% target. The current monetary policy situation is good, with risks to employment and inflation targets "roughly balanced"; should risks become unbalanced, the Federal Reserve is ready to respond at any time, but such changes may take a long time to occur.
She emphasized that correcting high inflation expectations once they become entrenched is costly, and uncertainties such as market volatility will suppress consumption, while stimulative fiscal policies can boost demand. Tariffs may temporarily drive up inflation. Additionally, the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency is significant for the U.S., and most indicators suggest that inflation expectations will remain stable.
Future tariffs and the Federal Reserve's movements are in a somewhat unstable state, and anything could happen in the future, so we must continue to pay attention to the dynamic news.
