As Bitcoin broke through $100,000, social media exploded, and KOLs proclaimed that the bull market had arrived. But did you notice a detail? The on-chain retail users, trading addresses, trading frequency... all hardly moved. Who is really supporting this round of price increase? If retail investors do not enter the market, how far can this bull market go?
Main content:
On May 28, just past, Bitcoin's price once again broke through $100,000, triggering great excitement in the market. However, when we lift the veil on the on-chain data behind the charts, we find a reality of lively appearances and a cold foundation.
Retail investors are holding back, while whales are frantically buying.
From the on-chain data, the current rise of Bitcoin is more driven by institutional funds and large account trading. According to the data:
$10 million and above transaction volume surged by 59.26%.
$1 million to $10 million transaction volume increased by 13.26%.
At the same time, the transaction volume of $0–$1 decreased by 66.38%, and the $10–$100 range decreased by 6.90%.
This indicates that: retail investors are still observing, while institutions have already jumped in.
Meanwhile, the number of new addresses decreased by 5.93%, the number of active addresses decreased by 6.46%, and the number of zero-balance addresses decreased by 9.79%. All of these indicate that there are fewer new users on the network and decreased activity.
From the exchange data, although Bitcoin is being continuously transferred out (exchange reserves down 0.96% to $266.49 billion), these outflows are more about custody or long-term holding rather than flowing to retail investors.
Has the bull market really started? Or are institutions playing a game of catch?
What is the standard of a bull market? It is not merely a price surge, but a structurally prosperous situation driven by price + on-chain activity + trading volume.
But what we currently see is:
The NVT golden cross indicator decreased by 26.06%, to 1.075, indicating that valuation growth is diverging from network transaction intensity.
The P/E ratio fell by 11.22%, to 1.297, indicating that the price is diverging from the actual valuation anchor of miners' income.
These signals indicate that the current rise of Bitcoin is more 'fund-driven' rather than 'user-driven'.
Historically, true bull markets are often 'ignited' by institutions, but what ultimately drives the market capitalization to double and causes crazy FOMO is always the comprehensive entry of retail investors.
Why haven't retail investors returned yet? What are they waiting for?
There are several possible reasons behind the 'silence of retail investors' in this round of price increase:
The aftershocks of the bear market still exist: many people were seriously hurt in the last round of retracement and are psychologically not ready to re-enter the market.
Unclear regulations: Especially in the context of uncertain Federal Reserve monetary policy and the SEC's fluctuating regulatory stance, ordinary investors tend to 'wait and see'.
The information gap still exists: institutions can quickly obtain data advantages and react, while retail investors are still relying on social platforms and bloggers to gain signals.
But did you know? This 'information gap' problem can now be broken through the use of AI investment research tools.
Mlion.ai is using its cryptocurrency price prediction model, on-chain data tracking, and whale movement analysis features to provide ordinary users with information perspectives close to institutional levels. You can see large outflow addresses from exchanges, track whale trading logic, and identify concentrated hotspots of fund flows - this is no longer a resource exclusive to institutions, but a tool available to users.
In addition, Mlion.ai's data dashboard can help you quickly understand the current market structure: which tokens are 'real hotspots', which are 'false rebounds', avoiding becoming the 'chasing high retail investors' in the market.
What will happen if retail investors remain hesitant to enter the market?
A bull market without retail investors cannot be sustained - this is not an emotional judgment, but a mathematical logic.
No matter how large the institutional capital scale is, liquidity counterparties are still needed; and what truly allows the price of the currency to form a platform oscillation at a high position, and then initiate a new round of surges, is the countless retail investors' buying, holding, and trading behaviors day after day.
If retail investors continue to be absent, this 'one-man show bull market' may weaken prematurely, even resulting in a structural top.
If retail investors suddenly awaken and enter en masse, it will have a second-round boosting effect on the price, which is the core driver of a true bull market explosion.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin's breakthrough of $100,000 seems historic, but it is more like a rehearsal performance 'starring institutions with retail investors absent'. The real show is still waiting for the moment when public sentiment awakens.
If you don't want to miss the critical window before retail investors awaken, it's recommended to use AI tools like Mlion.ai as early as possible to establish your own on-chain information system, fund flow analysis perspective, and trading strategy model. In an era where on-chain data is becoming increasingly complex, having insight means having initiative.
Disclaimer: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please fully understand market risks and make prudent judgments before making any investment decisions.
