Since the second quarter, Dogecoin (DOGE) has risen for two consecutive months, gaining momentum. However, as June approaches, veteran players may already be sounding the alarm. **In the past 10 years, June has almost never been kind to DOGE investors.** Will the upward trend continue, or will the curse repeat? This time, should we sell at the top, or boldly enter the market?
Dogecoin's performance in the second quarter of this year has been noteworthy. It rose by 28.2% in May, standing out in the overall turbulent environment of the cryptocurrency market. Particularly, the rebound trend continuing from April has left many investors expecting the upcoming trend.
However, upon closer inspection of historical data, you will find that June has almost never been a favorable month for Dogecoin.
A decade of historical review: June, the invisible ceiling for Dogecoin?
According to CryptoRank's statistics, Dogecoin's monthly performance in June has always been weak since its listing:
In the past ten years, June has been down in 7 of those years;
The average decline is about 7.3%, with a median close to 10%;
In June 2022, DOGE plummeted by over 23%;
Even in bull market years, 2021 recorded a nearly 24% pullback;
Although the market was stable in 2023, June still saw a decline of 7.2%.
In contrast to other months, such as April, November, and December, Dogecoin's average gains are more substantial, especially in April, where the average gain reaches as high as 60%, often regarded as Dogecoin's strong month. June often becomes a period of correction after a peak or a turning point in the market.
This historical pattern is not coincidental. According to on-chain data, Dogecoin's holder structure is mainly composed of short-term swing traders, and the turnover rate tends to rise rapidly in the late second quarter, making prices susceptible to seasonal correction pressure.
Current trend: showing signs of fatigue, pressure has begun to release.
Back to reality, after reaching a high of $0.26 in mid-May, Dogecoin has seen a continuous decline, with the current trading price falling to above $0.21. Price trends show decreasing peaks and shorter rebound cycles.
Mlion.ai's trend reversal indicator shows that DOGE has already seen multiple top divergence signals on the 4-hour and daily levels, with trading volume simultaneously shrinking. Combined with on-chain fund flow analysis, there have been slight signs of large holding addresses reducing their positions in the past week, and on-chain activity has also declined by 12% from the May peak.
From a technical chart perspective, DOGE has important support at $0.20, and if it falls below this level, it may quickly retrace to $0.18 or even lower.
Is June an opportunity or a risk? It depends on your strategy.
While historical data suggests June is a high-risk month, it doesn't mean there are no trading opportunities. The key is which cycle you stand in and what strategy you formulate.
For short-term traders: June should be a warning for historical correction patterns, lock in profits in a timely manner to avoid being passively trapped at high levels;
For medium to long-term holders: If the market experiences a significant correction, it may actually be a good opportunity to accumulate, as DOGE is continuously pushing for ecological expansion, and future application scenarios are constantly expanding.
Mlion.ai's AI price prediction module provides a probability distribution for June's trend that also supports this strategic differentiation:
Moderate correction (5% - 10% decline) probability: 46%;
Deep correction (more than 10% decline) probability: 32%;
Consolidation probability: 22%.
In addition, the whale tracking module indicates that the top 100 holding addresses of DOGE have not shown signs of collective reduction, meaning that large funds are still taking a wait-and-see attitude and are not in a hurry to sell.
How should investors respond to this period of 'curse'?
In the face of possible upcoming volatility, it may be worth utilizing Mlion.ai's smart tools for risk management:
Utilize the take profit and stop loss range model to set safety boundaries in advance, avoiding losses from sudden market movements.
By utilizing on-chain sentiment analysis features, monitor the movements of large holders in real time to prevent sudden sell-offs;
Combine the technical chart recognition system to capture potential reversal signals and rationally layout buy and sell points.
By effectively using these tools, one can defend during corrections and also seek genuine entry opportunities amidst chaos.
Conclusion:
June has historically not been friendly to Dogecoin; history tells us to exercise caution; yet market structure and technical signals compel us to consider that this may also be an underestimated opportunity.
Regardless of the outcome, truly outstanding investors always win with strategy rather than emotion. Let the data speak, and use AI to gain insights into complex changes, so as to stand firm in the fluctuations.
Mlion.ai, helping you penetrate cycles and see trends clearly.
Disclaimer: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing involves risks, please make cautious decisions based on your actual situation.
