When you see Bitcoin and Ethereum repeatedly testing key support during fluctuations, you may not realize that **the real 'big moves' may be hidden in the depths of the options market.** This Friday, over 11.7 billion dollars in BTC and ETH options are about to expire, which may not only ignite short-term volatility but also influence market direction choices. Are you ready?
This Friday, the global cryptocurrency market will undoubtedly focus on the upcoming expiration of 11.7 billion dollars in options contracts. This event is not just a regular monthly settlement but a 'directional catalyst' under the current high leverage and high sentiment background.
According to data from the Deribit platform, the open interest of this batch of options has reached a new high since 2025, showing that market expectations for future volatility are continuously increasing.
The options battle between BTC and ETH: It's not just a price game, but a battle for direction.
First, it is important to clarify that the expiration behavior of the options market often creates an 'attraction' effect on the spot market prices. This is known as the 'Max Pain Price', which is the price range where both sides of the options market suffer the least losses, and the exchange earns the most.
From Deribit's current data:
The Max Pain price for Bitcoin is around 106,000 dollars.
Ethereum is around 5,350 dollars.
This means that if most contracts are not rolled over, capital will actively or passively close positions in these key price ranges, leading to concentrated volatility.
Moreover, as the June quarterly options settlement approaches, institutions are beginning to layout for next quarter's contracts, and their handling intentions for the current monthly contracts will directly affect short-term capital allocation.
The soaring open contracts suggest tight liquidity.
As of now, the open contract amount for BTC and ETH on the Deribit platform is nearing historical highs:
The open interest of BTC contracts has exceeded 9 billion dollars.
The open interest of ETH contracts has exceeded 2.7 billion dollars.
Totaling up to 11.7 billion dollars.
This is not a conventional level. Typically, the open interest of monthly contracts approaching expiration will be lower than that of quarterly cycles, but this time it has risen against the trend, indicating some 'potential restructuring' is occurring in the market structure.
According to Mlion.ai's derivatives tracking model analysis, this anomaly may indicate:
More institutional funds are entering the options market for hedging or arbitrage.
The market has high uncertainty regarding upcoming policies and macro data, leading to an increased willingness to hold positions.
High volatility expectations are brewing a larger directional breakout.
The recent market structure is trending towards a 'directional vacuum', and the expiration of options may become a node for breaking the balance.
In the past week, Bitcoin has repeatedly surged and retreated around 111,000 dollars, currently oscillating in the range of 107,000–110,000 dollars. Ethereum remains stable above 5,200 dollars, and has not yet clearly broken through its previous high.
Mlion.ai's technical analysis reveals that the current market is in a typical 'triangle convergence' pattern. If options funds push up Gamma exposure, it may form a breakout momentum, leading to severe fluctuations.
It is worth noting that on the day of options expiration and the two days before and after, it is often one of the most concentrated periods for on-chain trading volume, contract turnover rate, and liquidation. If investors do not dynamically hedge risks, they can easily be 'swept' by the severe volatility.
How to cope with the 'Volatility Day' at the end of the month? Using AI tools to layout in advance is crucial.
In the face of such macro short-term risk events, investors should not rely solely on price trends or social media sentiment to make decisions, but should return to data-driven logic.
This is where Mlion.ai can play a role:
Through options position intensity models, analyze the real-time structure of BTC and ETH call/put options;
Utilizing on-chain capital flow analysis, observe whether there are large-scale movements of whale market-making funds in the short term;
Using price prediction and chart strategy modules, accurately set profit-taking and stop-loss zones to avoid extreme volatility risk;
More importantly, using the **'Max Pain Monitoring Tool'**, in conjunction with open interest and Gamma Delta exposure, to determine whether the price will be pulled back repeatedly at specific points.
Conclusion:
The expiration of 11.7 billion dollars in options is not just a numbers game, but a battlefield for short-term market direction competition. It represents the collective focus of tens of thousands of traders, institutions, and market makers.
When volatility suddenly increases, smart investors do not just wait for the market to provide answers, but proactively layout, hedge reasonably, and use AI research tools like Mlion.ai to build a data-driven decision-making system.
This round is not about who shouts the loudest, but about who sees deeper and moves more steadily.
Disclaimer: This article is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please assess your own risk tolerance before investing.
