Prediction for BTC trend in the next 24 hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $110,200 (4-hour EMA60 + concentrated short liquidation zone), $111,500 (Fibonacci extension level)

* Key Support: $107,300 (institutional cost line + long position stop-loss trigger point), $105,800 (weekly Bollinger band middle line)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour RSI (42) neutral to weak, MACD histogram shrinking, TD sequence has 8 consecutive bearish candles; if it does not break through $110,200 with volume, be cautious of a false breakout.

Event Driven:

* Bullish: Trump's policy narrative fermentation, inflow of funds from Square payment pilot, overflow of ETH staking demand

* Bearish: Delayed XRP ETF review suppressing risk appetite, rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, SUI unlocking impact

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($107,300 - $110,200): 45% (waiting for policy signals and leverage clearance)

* Rebound (break above $110,200): 30% (requires ETF net inflow exceeding $450 million in one day)

* Decline (fall below $107,300): 25% (linked NASDAQ pullback + long position liquidation)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-term: Current price $108,800 light short position, stop-loss at $110,500, target $106,500; if it breaks above $110,500, reverse to long, target $112,000.