Forecast for BTC Trends in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $108,500 (4-hour EMA60 + dense area for short liquidation), $109,800 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)

* Key Support: $106,000 (institutional cost line + long position stop-loss trigger point), $104,500 (weekly Bollinger Band lower limit)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour MACD histogram continues to shrink, RSI (39) enters oversold territory but shows no divergence, TD sequence records the 7th consecutive bearish candle; if unable to break through $108,500 with volume, be cautious of a false rebound.

Event Drivers:

* Bullish: Expectations around the Vance policy fermenting, BlackRock increasing its narrative, Coinbase technical upgrades

* Bearish: Fed's hawkish expectations suppressing, stablecoin trust crisis, Vietnam scam impacting retail investor confidence

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($106,000-$108,500): 45% (waiting for policy signals and on-chain fund flows)

* Rebound (breakthrough $108,500): 30% (needs ETF net inflow exceeding $350 million in a single day)

* Decline (fall below $106,000): 25% (linked to a correction in US stocks + liquidation of long positions)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-term: current price $107,500, lightly short with a stop-loss at $108,800, target $105,200; if it breaks $108,800, switch to a long position with a target of $110,000.