Forecast for BTC Trend in the Next 24 Hours

Technical Analysis:

* Key Resistance: $107,500 (4-hour EMA60 + densely packed on-chain liquidation zone)

* Key Support: $105,000 (maximum pain point for options + institutional OTC accumulation zone)

* Indicator Signals: 4-hour MACD histogram diverging below the zero axis, RSI (36) entering oversold territory but showing no divergence; a significant drop below $105,000 may trigger $800 million in leveraged liquidations.

Event Drivers:

* Bullish: Expectations for sovereign reserves in emerging markets, ETF funds flowing in against the trend, OKX transparency boosting confidence

* Bearish: Divergence in Federal Reserve policy suppressing risk appetite, concerns over Tether's massive BTC holdings being sold off

Probability Distribution:

* Consolidation ($105,000-$107,500): 45% (waiting for policy signals and on-chain liquidations to clear)

* Decline (falling below $105,000): 35% (linked to soaring U.S. Treasury yields + long position liquidation)

* Rebound (breaking above $107,500): 20% (needs ETF net inflow exceeding $500 million in a single day)

Operational Suggestions:

* Short-term: Currently priced at $105,900, lightly short with a stop loss at $107,800, target $103,500; if it significantly drops below $105,000, chase the short down to $102,000.