The advisor discusses hot topics:
Today, let’s first talk about the recent market hot topic James, who is indeed marketing like crazy. A couple of days ago, he was just $100 away from liquidation. He holds 5782 Bitcoins at an average price of 110084, with a liquidation price of 107320, totaling a market value of 620 million. He is currently facing a floating loss of nearly ten million dollars.
These days, whether he is directing traffic for himself, creating hype for HYPE, or promoting his own project, the excitement is at its peak, and the goal has been achieved. The advisor guesses that at this time, someone must be wondering if they can follow his order.
You are confused; you should know that ordinary small investors can't play at all. You can't go long like him, nor touch his shorts, and don't be naive enough to think you can profit by being on the opposite side of him.
Don't think the market is targeting James; in fact, the market never targets anyone, but it won't let anyone off the hook either. It's like a hacker; as long as you have a strong liquidation price, just wait to be liquidated—it's only a matter of time. To survive, having money is not enough.
Let's take a look at MicroStrategy, which bought more BTC for $427 million. If you're shorting, are you scared now? To me, scared of what? If he hadn't continued to buy 4000 coins last week, how would BTC break through 110k? But don't forget, he’s not a money printer; the funds are limited, and it will run out sooner or later.
The reason you can keep chasing highs is that we are still in a bull market and can rely on profits from the US stock market to increase positions. But if one day the macro environment changes, and you can't patch up the east wall with the west wall, you will still blow up.
Moreover, the higher it goes, the larger the buying volume must be—who can hold it? This is no different from a Ponzi scheme; the later you enter, the higher the risk. In the medium-term trend, there will always be a good short position opportunity.
For example, what if Japan suddenly raises interest rates again one day, and Bitcoin drops unilaterally for two months? The market won’t rise forever; corrections need to happen.
Returning to the market, the daily structure of Bitcoin is currently stable, and the upward trend has not been broken. The key levels are 102 to 102.5k. If it really breaks down here, the daily structure will be ruined, and we will have to look down. But if it holds, then it will continue to oscillate at the top, aiming for new highs.
The current core pressure is 110k; if it stands above, a new round of highs will follow; if it cannot hold, it will test the 102k area below. The news is light on Tuesday and Wednesday, with the focus still on the Federal Reserve meeting minutes at 2 AM on Thursday.
The advisor sees the trend:
Resistance reference:
Second resistance level: 110000
First resistance level: 109100
Support reference:
Second support level: 107700
First support level: 106800
Today's suggestion:
After the close yesterday, the rising trend line found support and showed a short-term rebound, peaking at 110.5K before retreating. If the price breaks below the current rising trend line and support level, it’s time to change strategies.
Once the trend line is broken, it means the trend may reverse, and trading must follow a new approach. From the hourly level, we can see a rebound after breaking the trend line, but the rising trend line quickly turns into resistance. The price declines again; after losing this trend line, it will become an N-shaped decline structure.
Currently, 109100 can be regarded as strong resistance. If a secondary rebound occurs in this area but the highs keep lowering, a new round of correction may be on the way. If you are taking short-term long positions, consider taking profits in batches as you approach this resistance.
To break resistance quickly, a large bullish candle with volume is needed. However, without significant positive news, the probability of such a bullish candle appearing is low.
Therefore, the advisor suggests that during the slow rise in coin prices and the gradual increase in trading volume, 109100 and 110000 should be set as phased profit-taking targets.
107700 is an important short-term support level, and this range coincides with the 200-day moving average and the rising trend line, making it a good risk-reward entry point. Once it breaks down, the second support at 106800 will be tested.
Since the overall trend is still bullish, maintain a bullish mindset. Look for the point of decline and rebound during corrections; if the trend line is completely broken, be cautious of a continuation of N-shaped declines, and consider flipping to short or stepping aside to observe.
Despite the recent short-term pullback, the upward trend remains unchanged from a larger timeframe perspective. Today, pay close attention to the selling pressure and volume changes in the 109000 to 110000 range. If there is a volume pullback, participate in the correction; if there is a volume breakout, take long positions accordingly.
5.27 Advisor's wave strategy:
Long entry reference: gradually buy in the 106500-106800 range, target: 109100-109800
Short entry reference: not applicable
If you really want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not jump to conclusions after watching the market a few times. This market is full of performers; today’s long position screenshots and tomorrow’s short position summaries may seem like 'always catching tops and bottoms', but in reality, they are all after-the-fact comments. A truly noteworthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, self-consistent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dream weaver!
