Market trends discussed:
It’s been three days since the last update, and Trump is once again stirring the market with his words. So today I’ll share my views on the current market. The current situation can no longer be called logic; it’s a complete chaos of emotions, rhetoric, and erratic trading rhythms.
Let’s get straight to the point today. Currently, Bitcoin has surged from 74K and is now in a climax phase. Look at the price nearby; liquidity is extremely thin both above and below, making it difficult to move up or down.
The question is, what kind of trend will follow? First, it will be a consolidation, then form a converging triangle pattern to stir up the sentiment before making any decisive moves.
Currently, this price range is actually the same as the range before the big drop on Friday, around 110600. Think about it; this trend has gone in a circle and returned. Doesn’t it feel familiar?
The liquidation data on the contracts side is also interesting; shorts are clustered while longs are distributed quite evenly. So the market is stuck here; there’s no one to buy it up or sell it down, and liquidity keeps diminishing.
However, logically speaking, when the high shorts should be liquidated, Trump’s words brought it down, and when it was supposed to surge to 103K to liquidate the longs, Trump’s statements pulled it back. Do you think the market has any logic? Of course not! We can only rely on the price's reaction to news to judge market supply and demand.
If bearish pressure fails to create new lows, it indicates that the bottom may be near. If bullish pressure fails to create new highs, it suggests that the top may also be approaching. So we should focus on short liquidity above previous highs; only when it is liquidated will it be a true climax; otherwise, it's just foreplay, you know?
For the market this week, it will enter a range of fluctuations. Trump repeatedly stirs up tariffs, and the market reacts back and forth to expectations; over time, these expectations dull. At such times, it is easiest to form a converging triangle, followed by a decisive strike.
So don’t fantasize, don’t go heavy, don’t go ALL IN. Determine a potential range for fluctuations and just do some short-term trading. Either clear out the shorts' despair or push the longs to the sky; in any case, the real top is not far away.
By the way, regarding altcoins, don’t think that ETH has surged nearly to 3000 recently. Have you seen altcoins rise? No! Why? Because the whales are scared too. Current market liquidity is too tight; with interest rates not lowered, U.S. bonds have risks in June, and with Trump's tariff manipulations, who dares to confidently rally the market?
Market trends observed:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 110300
First resistance level: 109600
Support level reference:
Second support level: 108900
First support level: 108300
Today's advice:
Currently, Bitcoin is in a high-level pullback confirmation phase. If the price can continue to fluctuate at a high level, there is still an expectation of further short-term increases.
Currently, the price fluctuates within the range of 108.9K~109.6K. If this range is maintained, the probability of a rebound is high. Attention should also be paid to the support role of the 120-day moving average.
Currently, the probability of breaking through the first resistance level of 109600 is very high, with a possibility of reaching the 110K level. If it can continue to hold the support of the 120-day moving average, there is a chance to further test 110K and even stabilize at 110300. However, it is important to note that 110.3K is a local pressure level formed after the previous peak retracement.
The area where the first support at 108.9K overlaps with the 120-day moving average is crucial for whether the current short-term trend can be maintained. If this support is broken, the short-term trend may weaken.
If both 108.9K and the 120-day moving average are broken down, the area around 108K~108.3K will be an important observation zone, and it is also a better risk-reward ratio area. It is recommended to make judgments based on the overall trend of the 200-day moving average.
Overall, Bitcoin has held the 200-day moving average and broken through the upper edge of the converging wedge, maintaining an overall rebound pattern. Try to avoid shorting; if there is a pullback opportunity, consider building long positions at lower levels.
5.26 Market analysis by the expert:
Long entry reference: Gradually buy in the range of 108000-108900. Target: 110300-111300
Short entry reference: Not available at the moment
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you must keep following them, rather than forming conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; one day they show long positions, and the next day they summarize shorts, making it look like they are 'catching tops and bottoms' every time, but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly noteworthy blogger will have a consistent trading logic that withstands scrutiny, not just jumping on bandwagons when the market moves. Don’t let flashy data and out-of-context screenshots blind you; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!