Today is May 25, 2025, Monday. Early this morning, Trump started changing his mind again, announcing the cancellation of tariffs on the EU effective June 1, while extending the 90-day tariff delay to July 9. Originally, he had just said on Friday that a 50% tariff would be imposed on the EU starting June 1, but suddenly announced a pause on Monday. The price of Bitcoin immediately surged from $107,300 to $110,220. I honestly don't know what data or technical indicators could accurately predict Trump's statements; if there is such a thing, it probably only exists in metaphysics. That's why I said last week that tariffs are just a tool Trump uses to intimidate; the real goal is to extract concessions and manipulate the stock market. However, if Trump continues to play this way, both the stock and bond markets might eventually be broken.
Although the tariffs are temporarily not being increased, the market is still in a state of panic. Returning to normal sentiment will depend on the reaction of American investors after the US stock market opens on Tuesday. There is still a month and a half until the July 9 tariff expiration, with the June Federal Reserve meeting in between. Currently, the market expects an over 80% probability that there will be no interest rate cut in June, so overall market sentiment remains fairly cautious, and selling pressure is likely to increase. I'm not saying Bitcoin can't hit new highs, but there are plenty of landmines along the way, so everyone should be wary of sudden market crashes.
In the coming week, aside from Friday's PCE inflation data, there aren't any significant news items. Therefore, the short-term market still depends on Trump's demeanor; after all, the next Federal Reserve meeting is still a while away. This old man can make the market react wildly with just a few words, which are far more useful than any economic data or technical analysis.
Why has the altcoin season been delayed for so long? Will there still be an altcoin season?
In fact, this situation hinges on two key indicators: the US dollar index and the ETH exchange rate. In previous years, the Federal Reserve would have already started quantitative easing before the US presidential election, but this year is particularly unusual; not only have they not reduced interest rates, but they are also tapering, and the dollar index remains high. It's like crops lacking water and nutrients; how can they thrive? Therefore, for an altcoin rally to happen, we still need to wait for the dollar index to truly decline and for the ETH exchange rate to rise.
However, as long as Ethereum rises, the altcoin market generally has good prospects. For example, since April, Ethereum has risen from $1500 to $2700, and many altcoins have doubled during this period. This indicates that the market is not completely devoid of opportunities; it just isn't as easy as it used to be when you could make money with your eyes closed. Now, to make money, you need to be selective, focusing on popular sectors that have financial backing—just like when people go to the vegetable market to buy groceries, they will choose fresh and vibrant ones; wilted ones, no matter how cheap, are undesirable.
In short, I personally still believe that the altcoin season will come, but we need to patiently wait for the dollar index to turn downward and for Ethereum to regain its strength. When that happens, the funds will flow in like a floodgate opening, and good projects will naturally rise to the occasion. For now, we just need to prepare our ammunition and keep an eye on those key indicators, so we don't lose our chips right before dawn.
That's all for today's content; see you next time!
