Today is May 7, 2025, Wednesday. The market performance is still quite good today; after a few days of adjustment, Bitcoin has started to surge again, reaching a high of $97,700. However, the current rise mainly relies on external news stimuli; only major news can bring about significant fluctuations. For example, this morning's surge was primarily due to New Hampshire passing the first Bitcoin strategic reserve bill in the U.S., along with domestic and international media coverage, which created some FOMO (fear of missing out) in the market. Although their buying volume is not comparable to large companies like MicroStrategy, this event is very significant for the status of Bitcoin, much like how the approval of gold ETFs initiated a decade-long bull market; people's confidence in Bitcoin has significantly strengthened.
However, tonight is the main event, as the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and there will also be a 30-year Treasury auction. Although the market has long predicted that there will be no interest rate cuts this time, Powell's speech is particularly crucial. Personally, I feel he is unlikely to release dovish signals, and the market will definitely see significant fluctuations tonight. Although state government purchases of Bitcoin are a positive factor, compared to the direction of the Federal Reserve's policies, the latter has a far greater impact on the market.
Whether Powell is dovish or hawkish is particularly important. Personally, I judge that this time he will likely shift the blame to Trump. Recently, the U.S. GDP and non-farm data have been good, showing economic resilience, which has stimulated the rise of the risk market. However, inflation data has not continued to decline, so it cannot be ruled out that Powell will continue to keep the market in check. Additionally, the 30-year Treasury auction may withdraw liquidity from the risk market, so I personally remain cautiously optimistic.
Back to Bitcoin, if it can stabilize above $98,000 in the coming days, especially breaking through $98,500, then there is indeed not much selling pressure above. However, tonight is destined to be a sleepless night; the direction of the market in the coming weeks may depend on how tonight goes. In terms of operations, I believe patience is needed at this position. Although state government policies are favorable for long-term bullishness, short-term attention still needs to be on the Federal Reserve's stance. If you already hold spot positions, you can continue to hold, but there is no need to rush to increase positions at this level. If you want to build a position, it is recommended to wait until the results of tonight's meeting are announced and market sentiment stabilizes.
Additionally, there is another piece of news: the SEC has postponed the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs for Litecoin, Ripple, and Dogecoin, with a new deadline of June 17, during which public opinions will be solicited. This postponement is actually entirely within market expectations, considering that even Bitcoin's ETF has been delayed many times before finally being approved, let alone other cryptocurrencies. Therefore, everyone should be patient; essentially, this postponement is not a negative signal. In the current market environment, even if it is approved, it may not be able to drive the entire market to recover. As long as there is no outright rejection, the expectations for ETFs remain, and opportunities for speculation on expectations still exist.
Overall, the market is currently in a relatively delicate phase. On one hand, there are positive news stimuli, while on the other hand, there is uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies. For ordinary investors, the best strategy might be to manage positions well and avoid blindly chasing highs and lows. The long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains unchanged, but short-term volatility risks should still be taken seriously. Especially after tonight's Federal Reserve meeting, the market may experience severe fluctuations, so it's advised to be prepared.
Another reminder is that the cryptocurrency market is very volatile, and investments must be made according to one's ability. Do not make impulsive moves because of temporary fluctuations, and definitely do not borrow money to invest. Stay rational and manage risks well to go further in this market. Remember, there are always opportunities in the market; do not fear missing out. The important thing is to protect your principal and wait for the right opportunities.
That's all for today; we'll see you next time!