Today is May 20, 2025, Tuesday. Yesterday, May 19, there was a break in updates. Those familiar with the market understand the significance of this date, so I won’t elaborate further. The market has really been a rollercoaster lately, with Bitcoin and U.S. stocks jumping all over the place. Bitcoin peaked at 107,000 dollars and nearly fell below 102,000 dollars, fluctuating back and forth four times. It’s really hard for those with weak hearts to handle. However, today it seems the market has finally steadied, and the panic caused by Moody's downgrade is slowly dissipating.
Last night there was a significant piece of good news; the stablecoin bill in the U.S. finally made some progress. Although it’s still early for it to be formally passed, the earliest it could happen is in August. If this bill is actually passed, it would be a great boon for the crypto world. Right now, stablecoins like USDC and USDT are still seen as minor players in the eyes of Wall Street big shots, mainly because of compliance issues. If the bill passes, institutional funds will be able to enter the market with confidence. Some institutions predict that if this bill is passed, the stablecoin market size could soar from the current 200 billion to 2 trillion dollars. If that happens, it would be a golden era for altcoins. However, we will have to wait some time for the specifics to be implemented.
On the other hand, things are not so optimistic. There’s still no sign of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, and the U.S.-China tariff issues are still being debated. Although a trade agreement may be signed, Trump is back to his unpredictable ways. Recently, the U.S. has intensified restrictions on Chinese chips, mainly targeting high-end AI chips. The specifics are still unclear, but it is likely intended to cut off Chinese companies' routes to buy chips overseas. The timing coincided with the opening of the U.S. stock market, combined with Moody's downgrade causing risk markets to start declining. However, the crypto market did not worsen further; instead, it gradually digested Moody's downgrade and the prolonged tug-of-war between the U.S. and China. Particularly when Trump tweeted that the Russia-Ukraine war might end, Bitcoin's price rebounded to recent highs.
Currently, the market seems to have withstood this wave of bad news, and the impact of Moody's downgrade is gradually weakening. However, the bond market is still not looking good; the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries is still hovering around 4.445%, which is not favorable for U.S. stocks and the crypto market. In the short term, there are no good news that can bring in a large amount of capital.
According to the latest data, the probability of an interest rate cut in June is less than 9%, and the probability of a cut in July is only 34%. It seems that this small rally may have reached its peak, and a new trend is brewing. However, everyone is still immersed in the excitement of rising prices and has not fully reacted.
Overall, in the long term, the stablecoin bill is a significant positive, but it doesn't solve immediate problems. In the short term, there are still more negative factors, and the risk of a market shift is considerable. I suggest everyone stay calm, don’t be too impulsive, and being cautious is always a good idea.
That's all for today's content sharing; see you next time!