Three days ago, on the morning of the 24th, I specifically posted saying that after three days, #BTC would rebound back to 112,000, reaching a new high on Tuesday. I once again caught the big bottom of this wave, opening a long position at 106,810, with a minimum of 106,500, which is only 300 points above the lowest point. I mentioned 106,500 as a support level, and I not only provided the potential movement but also estimated the timing. My opening position model is just that precise. Now, let's discuss the latest views:
1. From the perspective of chip structure: I said that the absolute support below 106,500 has formed the big bottom of this wave. This is a viewpoint that you wouldn't get even if you paid for it elsewhere; I'm stating it openly here. If you say it's luck after one or two times, but after so many accurate entries at the big bottom, can it still be called luck? Haha. Looking upwards, 110,000 is a psychological round number that overlaps with the previous high, needing the US stock market to drive a push past it in the evening. 110,000 is not a problem; the first target position is 112,000, and as long as there are no other negative factors, 114,000 is quite normal.
2. From the perspective of estimated liquidation: A drop to 104,000 could trigger a liquidation of 2.4 billion, while a rise to 114,000 could trigger a liquidation of 3 billion. Currently around 109,600, with a range of 5,000 points both up and down, it is certainly more inclined to pull upwards.
In summary, the negative impact of Trump imposing a 50% tariff on Europe has disappeared. Currently, the Nasdaq futures are also in the green, and there are no negative factors. Tomorrow evening, the US stock market is likely to rise, and the external atmosphere for BTC is fine. Both the chip analysis mentioned above and the estimated liquidation support an upward push. Today the US stock market is closed, and even before tomorrow's opening, it is already around 109,600; reaching a new high of 112,000 is not an issue, and pushing to 114,000 is also not difficult.
For discussions, join 清水的小天地; sometimes I will share my views there.
