U.S. Treasury bonds are being sold off by global capital, while Bitcoin surges past $110,000. These two events seem unrelated, but there are hidden mysteries. Today, I want to tell you the truth about a peak understanding: global capital is redefining what a true safe-haven asset is.
Let’s look at a shocking set of data. Last night, the yield on the U.S. 20-year Treasury bond auction soared to 5.047, setting the worst record of the year. Even more frightening is that the subscription ratio from foreign investors has fallen below the psychological threshold of 70. What does this mean? It means global capital is collectively fleeing the U.S. bond market. The root of all this is the U.S. government's colossal debt of $36 trillion. Just the annual interest expenditure accounts for 4% of GDP. How outrageous is this number? It is more than double the annual military spending of the U.S. Just as the U.S. bond market is shaky, Bitcoin has staged a stunning reversal. With its price breaking through $110,000, its 30-day correlation with U.S. bonds has turned negative for the first time. This mirroring trend of you falling while I rise completely overturns the operating logic of traditional financial markets. Institutions like BlackRock have seen net inflows of up to $2.7 billion in a week through spot ETFs, and the global Bitcoin exchange inventory has fallen to its lowest level since 2018. All these data indicate one fact: large funds are hoarding Bitcoin as digital gold.
Bitcoin's surge is by no means accidental; it is global capital redefining safe-haven assets. Its underlying logic includes three revolutionary characteristics. First is data scarcity, with a total supply fixed at 21 million coins and an annual inflation rate of only 1.7%. In contrast, since the pandemic, global central banks have printed more than $120 trillion. This confrontation between limited supply and unlimited printing is reshaping the basic paradigm of value storage. Secondly, the technical resistance to censorship: through blockchain technology, Bitcoin has achieved asset autonomy that traditional finance cannot reach. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, we see both sides using cryptocurrencies to evade financial sanctions. This characteristic of a digital firewall is gaining more attention from countries.
Finally, there is global liquidity. The Lightning Network has enabled Bitcoin transactions to exceed 10 TPS, with transaction costs dropping to $0.0001. This efficiency, close to that of traditional electronic payments, has given digital gold its first practical circulation function. The most noteworthy aspect is the strategic layout at the national level. After El Salvador listed Bitcoin as legal tender, its national reserves have appreciated by over 60%. Iran has used Bitcoin to settle oil exports, successfully bypassing the dollar blockade. These cases demonstrate that cryptocurrencies are transitioning from marginal experiments to national strategic tools. Data shows that global stablecoin transaction volume has reached $27 trillion, surpassing the total of Visa and Mastercard combined. Behind this explosive growth is the instinctive resistance of emerging markets to the dollar system. The current market shows three key turning signals: the proportion of holders with diamonds for over 5 years has risen to 28%, a historical high; the proportion of institutions in futures open interest has exceeded 62%; and the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index has dropped below 0.3. All these data point to one fact: Bitcoin is completing its transformation from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset. Morgan Stanley's latest research report even predicts that for every 1% market share Bitcoin flows from gold, the price could rise by $80,000. Observing from a macro perspective, this century-long showdown between U.S. Treasury bonds and Bitcoin is essentially a power transition between old and new financial systems. When the credit of fiat currencies is continuously diluted by a flood of debt, and when traditional safe-haven tools begin to reverse volatility, the market is spontaneously seeking new value anchors. The recent issuance of 10 virtual asset licenses in Hong Kong and the U.S. GENIUS stablecoin bill both indicate that the regulatory framework is accelerating its formation. This path of chaotic growth and regulated development is remarkably similar to the early internet revolution. The wheel of history is always astonishingly similar. When the old system shows cracks, it is often the best time for new species to grow explosively. This time, the blockchain technology provides not only a new asset but also a financial immune system to combat systemic risks. This grand play of the century has just begun. Are you ready to witness history?
