Bitcoin's price is experiencing a "maximum tug-of-war" at the $108,000 mark, with bulls and bears engaged in a fierce battle at the critical level of $107,000. This seemingly close sprint to a historical high reveals a strange weakness—declining volume and sluggish movement indicate that this may be a "false breakout trap" carefully prepared by the main force for retail investors.

I. $107,000 Life and Death Battle: The Ultimate Battlefield of Bull and Bear Games

1. The Historical Curse of Critical Levels

$107,000 is not a coincidental resistance level but the starting point of significant corrections in June 2024 and February 2025. On-chain data shows that this price level has accumulated over 120,000 BTC in trapped positions, accounting for 6.5% of the total circulation. Whenever the price touches here, the willingness to unlock trapped positions and the profit-taking demand overlap, creating natural selling pressure.

2. The Main Force's Boiling Frog Strategy

The current rise exhibits typical characteristics of "trap-like escalation":


  • Volume-Price Divergence: When breaking through $108,000, the trading volume was only $18 billion, a 28% decrease compared to the true breakout market in March ($25 billion), indicating a lack of genuine buying support;

  • Abnormal Intraday Chart: The 30-minute K-line repeatedly shows a "long upper shadow + small body" formation, with the main force creating a false breakout illusion through wash trading, while actually distributing chips at high levels;

  • Conflicting Capital Flows: Grayscale ETF increased its holdings by 500 BTC in a single day, but retail investors on Coinbase experienced a net outflow of $230 million, showing a severe divergence between institutions and retail investors.

II. Bitcoin's False Breakout Script: A Slaughter Warning After New Highs

1. Three Major Signals of False Breakouts

  • RSI Divergence: Price creates a new high for the stage, but the RSI indicator falls from 72 to 68, showing clear signs of momentum exhaustion;

  • Abnormal Futures Positions: OKX quarterly contract long-short ratio surged to 1.8:1, with shorts passively reducing positions leading to data distortion, indicating a precursor to "long liquidation";

  • Large Whale Address Movements: The "Whale 052" address holding over 10,000 BTC transferred 3,000 BTC to exchanges today, and historical behavior shows that significant fluctuations always occur within 72 hours after large transfers.

2. Long Cleaning Plan Simulation

If the price briefly breaks through $110,000:


  • First Step: Trigger Retail Investors' "Breakout Buying" Instinct, estimating $500 million in follow-on funds entering the market;

  • Second Step: The main force sells 8,000 BTC in the $110,000 - $112,000 range, causing the price to quickly fall back to $105,000;

  • Third Step: Long contracts with a leverage ratio exceeding 5 times face mass liquidation, with the liquidation volume potentially reaching $2 billion, forming a "liquidation-style drop."

III. Ethereum and Altcoins: Diverging Market Under Heavy Resistance

1. Ethereum's Ceiling Effect

$2,600 has become Ethereum's "Achilles' heel":


  • Technical Suppression: The daily MACD death cross signal continues to ferment, with the upper Bollinger Band suppressing at $2,650;

  • Capital Diversion Effect: Bitcoin's breakout market attracts 70% of incremental funds, while Ethereum's on-chain activity declines by 15% month-on-month;

  • Fundamental Vacuum: The benefits of the Shanghai upgrade have already been priced in, and the next narrative hotspot (such as the large-scale landing of zkEVM) has yet to take shape.

2. Structural Opportunities and Risks of Altcoins

  • Compliance Narrative Explosion: South Korea promotes stablecoins in won, and Upbit launches OM, stimulating the RWA concept sector to rise by 12%, with projects like AST and HBD leading the way;

  • High-Risk Traps: Altcoins with a market capitalization of less than $100 million show a "general rise illusion," which is actually the result of manipulators using good news to sell off, with old coins like LUNC and FTT seeing a turnover rate exceeding 50%, necessitating caution with "good news leading to a crash";

  • Capital Rotation Rules: Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's volatility exceeds 50, the probability of funds flowing back to mainstream coins from altcoins reaches 80%, requiring preemptive defensive arrangements.

IV. Operational Strategy: Finding Certainty Amid Chaos

1. Bitcoin Defense Plan

  • Short-term Traders: Reduce positions by 50% at $108,000; add positions again if it breaks through $112,000 with a trading volume increased to $22 billion, otherwise go short with a stop loss at $115,000;

  • Medium to Long-term Holders: Set an ultimate stop loss at $103,000; exit and observe if it falls below this; if it stabilizes above $105,000, gradually buy back;

  • Options Hedging: Buy $105,000 put options, with premium costs controlled within 2% of position value, to hedge against false breakout risks.

2. Ethereum and Altcoins Response

  • Ethereum: Do not chase prices above $2,550; if it pulls back to the $2,300-$2,400 range, can lay out for a rebound, targeting $2,600;

  • Compliance Concept Coins: Focus on already established projects (like PAX, USDK), avoid purely conceptual speculative coins, and set a 15% profit/loss line;

  • Capital Management: Altcoin positions should not exceed 20% of total funds, and individual coin positions should not exceed 5%, to avoid black swan events.

V. Historical Warnings: Don't Let "Breakout Illusion" Destroy Your Capital

In December 2023, Bitcoin had a similar "false breakout" market at $38,000: after a brief rise to $42,000, it plummeted to $28,000 within two weeks, with over 300,000 retail investors facing liquidation. The current $108,000 mark is merely a high-definition remake of the same script.


In the cryptocurrency circle, "seeing is believing" is the most dangerous illusion. When everyone is focused on new highs, the main force is calculating your stop-loss levels; when the K-line breaks through resistance, the trading volume is revealing the truth. Remember: real breakouts are never muddled; they come with overwhelming buying pressure and a robust upward trend.
At this moment, staying skeptical is more important than being blindly optimistic. After all, in this market full of illusions, surviving is more meaningful than any charge.

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