History is always surprisingly similar, yet hides mysteries. When the market is obsessed with the 'double top theory', the main force is brewing a hunting game more brutal than in 2021. This time, they will use a combination of 'false breakout + real massacre' to make the bearish, bullish, and observing retail investors all become the fish on the chopping board.
1. Double top panic: Why do retail investors collectively fall into the main force's trap?
In 2021, BTC formed a double top pattern between $65,000 and $69,000, becoming a nightmare for 500,000 retail investors. Now, the worry of history repeating itself is spreading in the market, with technical analysts closely watching MACD divergence and RSI overbought signals, retail position data shows:
The proportion of short positions in perpetual contracts reaches 68%, setting a new high since 2024;
The withdrawal volume from spot exchanges suddenly increases, with 300,000 BTC transferred to cold wallets, and the market is filled with 'escaping the top' sentiment.
But the main force's sickle has always been swung at the majority. When 90% of people think it will fall, it creates excellent soil for a short squeeze market - under crowded short trades, any green candle may trigger a stampede of short positions being liquidated.
2. Violent washing script: A three-part journey from false breakout to real massacre
1. Step one: Warm water frog boiling type of enticing longs
Ethereum's warm water market: Slowly pushing up to $2,800-$3,000 over two weeks, with daily gains controlled at 1.5%-2%, making short sellers mistakenly believe 'this is the last chance to escape';
BTC lightning breakout: Suddenly surging 5% during a certain early morning period (like 4:00), instantly breaking the historical high of $110,000, triggering the 'breakout chasing' program of quantitative strategies.
This combination of 'slow bull for Ethereum + fast bull for BTC' will completely activate the market's FOMO emotions. On-chain data shows that when BTC breaks $110,000, the Grayscale GBTC premium rate will instantly narrow from -4% to +2%, attracting at least $500 million of retail funds to follow in.
2. Step two: Death turnover rate of mutual destruction of long and short
Short squeeze tide: After breaking $110,000, the short stop-loss levels (generally set at $108,000 - $112,000) are triggered, estimating that 21,000 BTC shorts will be forced to close, forming a 'short squeeze buying pressure', briefly pushing prices up to $115,000.
Bull trap: When retail investors are frantically chasing highs, the main force sells 5,000 BTC through dark pools (like Genesis Trading), causing the price to instantly fall below $110,000, trapping all those who chased the highs.
This process will create a daily turnover rate of 30%, equivalent to a complete blood exchange of the market's circulating chips. A market maker from a certain exchange revealed: 'The main force loves this kind of high turnover market, as it can clean up opposing positions and buy low with bloody chips.'
3. Step three: Cliff-like massacre and secondary accumulation
BTC crashes to $100,000: Before retail investors can react to being trapped after chasing highs, the main force links with the exchange to release false news that 'a certain whale address has been frozen', triggering panic selling, causing the price to plummet 12% within 2 hours;
ETH bloodbath to $2,500: Long contracts with leverage exceeding 5 times face mass liquidation, and clearing robots will push ETH below $2,500, completing the 'mutual destruction of long and short';
Main force buying low: In the $100,000 - $102,000 range, the main force accumulates 8,000 BTC through 500 anonymous addresses in batches, preparing ammunition for the next market.
3. Retail investor survival guide: How to break the main force's 'psychological war'?
1. Three signals to identify the trap of enticing longs
Volume-price divergence: When breaking out, if the trading volume does not exceed $20 billion (e.g., only $15 billion), it indicates a 'no-volume false breakout';
Abnormal funding rate: The perpetual contract funding rate suddenly surges above 0.1%, indicating that the main force is deliberately creating a bullish atmosphere;
On-chain whale movement: If an address holding more than 1,000 BTC transfers out more than 3,000 BTC in a single day, beware of the main force unloading.
2. Anti-fragile trading strategy
Long-short hedging: Holding 50% spot BTC while buying put options for 10% of the position (e.g., June 2025 expiration PUT) to hedge against the risk of a sharp drop;
Dynamic profit-taking: Set a moving profit-taking line (e.g., moving up 20% from the cost price), for every 5% increase in price, the profit-taking line moves up 3% simultaneously;
Give up the fish head and tail: After breaking $110,000, do not chase the rise, and do not bottom fish below $105,000, only participate in the certain 30% of the market.
3. Ultimate psychological tactics
Counterintuitive thinking: When 90% of the community is bearish, prepare for a bullish squeeze; when everyone is shouting 'the bull market is here', immediately activate the stop-loss protocol;
Position control: Always keep 30% cash position, regardless of rises or falls, to maintain initiative and avoid falling into the dilemma of 'either missing out or being trapped.'
4. Historical enlightenment: The main force's sickle is always half a step faster than you.
The double top in 2021 trapped those who chased highs, the false breakout in 2023 harvested the bottom fishers, and the script in 2025 is just a change of numbers; what remains unchanged is human greed and fear. Remember: there are no fresh matters in the cryptocurrency circle, only new chives.
When the market is obsessed with technical analysis, the main force is studying your psychology; when you are focused on the candlestick chart, the main force is focused on your position. In this inherently unequal game, the only way to survive is to jump out of the 'predicting the market' trap and establish a trading system that is counter-intuitive, counter-consensus, and counter-nature.
Perhaps the real signal of a top is not the divergence of technical indicators, but when you find that the taxi drivers around you are all discussing Bitcoin - but before this, the main force has already set up the game.
##特朗普晚宴 ##美国加征关税