This wave breaking the 110,000 barrier is a typical precise blast of 200 million large orders.
While Bitcoin oscillates around the 107,000 USD mark, the market is filled with the fantasy that 'the bull market has arrived.' However, countless historical data and capital flows indicate: this may be the final trap set by the main players for the ultimate slaughter. A 'bloody baptism' comparable to March 2020 has entered the countdown, with ETH possibly dropping back to triple digits and Bitcoin hitting a new historical low — and you, are you ready to face this storm?
1. The truth about the pseudo-bull market: Why is it said that now is just the prelude to the slaughterhouse?
1. Divergence bull market: Only Bitcoin's solo performance.
Bitcoin surged from 74,000 to 107,000 USD, an increase of 45%, but the average increase for altcoins was less than 15%, contrasting sharply with the 'universal bull market' of November 2023. More strangely:
Among the top 50 altcoins by market capitalization, 62% underperform Bitcoin, with star projects like UNI and AAVE seeing less than 10% growth;
The DeFi lock-up amount (TVL) has fallen from 45 billion USD to 42 billion USD, raising concerns about the market's true activity level.
This kind of 'index bull, individual stock bear' market is essentially a smokescreen for the main players to conceal their unloading of altcoins behind Bitcoin.
2. High-level positive news bombardment: The main players are luring retail investors to take over positions.
Recently, the easing of tariffs and the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have created a stark contrast to the negative environment at 74,000 USD. However, historical patterns show:
Before BTC peaked at 64,000 USD in April 2021, the media extensively reported 'institutional buying' and 'ETF approval';
Before ETH plummeted to 2,000 USD in August 2023, the market was wildly hyping 'Shanghai upgrade benefits materializing.'
The main players are well aware of the tactic that 'good news leads to bad news.' They release positive information at high levels to attract retail investors to take over high-level positions.
3. Illogical rises: A house of cards without financial support.
Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates and the Bank of Japan shifting towards rate hikes, global liquidity continues to tighten. This wave of Bitcoin's rise completely relies on the manipulation of the main players:
On-chain data shows that 30% of the trading volume comes from self-buying and selling by the same address group;
Grayscale GBTC's premium rate remains at -6%, indicating that institutional funds have not truly entered the market, leaving retail investors as the only ones taking positions.
This kind of 'no incremental funds + high trapped positions' rise is essentially building momentum for a subsequent major drop — the main players need sufficient downward space to complete the washout.
2. The ultimate washout scenario: How will Bitcoin complete a 'halving massacre'?
1. Technical death resonance.
Monthly divergence: Bitcoin's price hits a new high, but the RSI indicator falls from 78 to 72, signaling clear exhaustion of momentum;
Abnormal funding rates: The perpetual contract funding rate has exceeded 0.05% for five consecutive days, sharply increasing the cost of long positions;
Whale address activity: The 'Whale 007' address, holding over 10,000 BTC, transferred 12,000 BTC to exchanges this week, setting the largest single-day transfer record since 2022.
2. The chain reaction of liquidity collapse.
If Bitcoin falls below the critical support of 90,000 USD, it will trigger a three-fold crisis:
Quant funds cutting positions: CTA strategy models will automatically sell, estimating a flood of 2 billion USD in sell orders;
Leverage liquidation wave: Long positions with 10x leverage will face mass liquidation at 85,000 USD, with liquidation volume possibly reaching 3.5 billion USD;
Altcoin bloodbath: A sharp drop in BTC will trigger a panic flow of funds back to USD, with ETH possibly dragged down to 800 USD, and altcoins generally seeing declines of over 50%.
3. The true intentions of the main players: to wash away trapped positions and welcome the real bull market.
Historical experience shows that before every major bull market, there will be a 'hell-level washout':
Before the bull market in 2016, BTC plummeted from 750 USD to 350 USD (halved);
Before the bull market in 2020, BTC crashed from 8,900 USD to 3,800 USD (a decline of 57%).
Currently, the proportion of trapped positions in the market is as high as 45%. The main players must clear the floating positions through a sharp decline to prepare for a real bull market. As a private equity mogul said: 'The main players won't carry 10,000 tons of stones uphill; they will first blow the stones to pieces.'
3. Retail survival manual: How to preserve capital during a sharp decline?
1. Immediate risk-hedging operations.
Reduce positions to save yourself: From now until next week, reduce BTC/ETH positions to below 50%, and clear altcoins;
Allocate to stablecoins: Convert 30% of funds to USDT/USDC and keep 20% in cash to cope with extreme market conditions;
Set ultimate stop-loss: Unconditionally exit if Bitcoin falls below 90,000 USD or ETH below 1,600 USD, without any illusions.
2. Golden opportunities in sharp declines.
First wave of bottom-fishing: When BTC drops to 65,000 - 70,000 USD and ETH falls to 1,000-1,200 USD, one can enter with 20% of positions, betting on a rebound from overselling;
Second wave of increasing positions: If the market stabilizes, with BTC breaking 80,000 USD and ETH recovering 1,500 USD, increase positions by 30% to confirm the signal for the bull market's startup;
Focus on the true leaders: Prioritize bottom-fishing for Bitcoin and Ethereum, stay away from high-risk altcoins, especially those that have risen over 300% recently.
3. Psychological preparation: Refuse to let emotions destroy your wealth.
Accept the inevitability of a sharp decline: The market has entered the 'bubble clearing' phase, and the decline is for healthier increases;
Stay away from noise interference: Uninstall unnecessary market apps to avoid being influenced by short-term fluctuations in decision-making;
Prepare for a long-term battle: The real bull market may start in Q4 2025, and sufficient cash flow and patience must be maintained before then.
4. Historical insights: Behind the crisis is a window for the redistribution of wealth.
The crash in March 2020 left countless people bankrupt, but it also allowed a few to bottom out Bitcoin at 3,800 USD, achieving returns of dozens of times. Today's market is replaying a similar script — the difference is that this time the washout will be more brutal, and the opportunities will be more abundant.
Remember: The cryptocurrency market has never had a straight up-and-down trend; the main players' scythes and retail investors' fears are always at the core of market cycles. While others panic and cut their losses, smart investors are calculating the number of chips for the next bull market.
Now is not the time for greed, but a key moment for preserving strength. Hold tight to your stablecoins and wait for the inevitable crash — because only by experiencing a hellish baptism can one truly embrace the dawn of paradise.
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