Bitcoin's price at the $106,441 level is playing a 'heartbeat game'; beneath the seemingly gentle 0.95% increase lies a trap that chills even veteran investors. This is not an ordinary fluctuation but a meticulously designed 'trap for chasing the rise' by operators—the rising K-line is an illusion, while shrinking volume is the truth. A bloody battle between bulls and bears is about to unfold tonight.

1. Naked Trading: The Scythe Hidden in the Data

1. The Death Stare of Order Walls

The number of short orders at the $108,000 level reaches 355,373, which is 15% more than the short positions before ETH's crash in March 2024. This is not an ordinary resistance level but a 'ghost gate' set by operators—once the price touches it, a massive sell-off of short orders will trigger a chain liquidation. More terrifying is that 62% of these short orders come from anonymous addresses, a typical 'operator wash trading' tactic.

2. The Truth About Volume Impotence

This morning's surge appears strong, but in reality, it is a façade: the green volume bars (representing active sell orders) during the surge were 18% shorter than the red bars during the previous day's plunge, indicating that operators are using a small amount of capital to raise prices to lure retail investors into chasing the rise. The capital flow further reveals the conspiracy: among the $339 million net inflow, Grayscale ETF increased its holdings by 872 BTC, but Coinbase retail buy orders sharply decreased by 18%—institutions are creating an illusion of prosperity with a left-hand right-hand play.

2. Technical Aspect of Life and Death: The Countdown of Death in Indicators

1. The Deadly Temptation of RSI

The current RSI indicator is at 69.8, just one step away from the overbought line at 70. This kind of 'precise control' is no coincidence—operators use high-frequency trading robots to keep the indicators firmly at a dangerous edge, enticing technical retail investors to enter. Historical data shows that when RSI stays above 69-70 for more than 2 hours, the probability of a price pullback in the next 24 hours is as high as 83%.

2. The Slaughter Forecast of the Liquidation Heatmap

$107,500 has become a liquidation dense zone, with over 21,000 long contracts having stop-losses set at this price level. Once the price touches it, it will trigger a 'strong liquidation chain reaction':


  • First Wave: Liquidation at $107,500 triggers a $50 million sell-off, causing the price to drop to $106,000;

  • Second Wave: After breaking below $106,000, quantitative strategies automatically cut positions, sending the price straight towards the 'Naihe Bridge' at $104,000.

3. Tonight's Minefield: Three Time Bombs Are About to Explode

1. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Nuclear Bomb

Federal Reserve official Waller publicly speaks hawkish: "Rate cut in September? Don't even think about it!" This statement directly crushed U.S. stock futures, with Dow futures plummeting 200 points within 15 minutes. Historical experience shows that the correlation between U.S. stocks and the crypto market has risen to 0.78 within 60 minutes; a crash in U.S. stocks will directly drag down Bitcoin.

2. The Devilish Details of Contract Splitting

At 16:23, Binance saw 355,373 contract splits, divided into 1,786 small orders of 200 contracts each. This kind of operation has only one purpose: to avoid monitoring of large orders by exchanges and quietly lay out short orders. A certain blockchain analyst pointed out: 'When the ratio of large orders to small orders exceeds 1:200, there must be significant volatility within the next 4 hours.'

3. The Ultimate Judgment of PMI Data

The U.S. PMI data released at 20:30 has triggered the volatility index (VIX) to soar to 82, a new high since 2024. If the data falls short of expectations, the market will instantly switch to 'panic mode'—the same script had previously caused 150,000 retail investors to be liquidated during the fake breakout at $44,000 in December 2023.

4. Survival Manual: How to Escape Before the Slaughter?

1. Instant Stop-Loss Strategy

  • Reduce Position by 30%: Immediately sell 30% of your position at the current price of $106,441 to lock in profits while reducing risk exposure;

  • Chasing Uptrend Condition Orders: Set buy orders at $108,300 for a breakout, which must be accompanied by a trading volume exceeding $20 billion; both conditions are essential;

  • Bottom-Fishing Buy Orders: Place buy orders at $104,200, only capturing oversold rebound opportunities, with a stop-loss set below $103,800.

2. The Ultimate Survival Rule

  • Rejecting FOMO Emotions: The biggest fear of operators is that retail investors do not chase the rise; the more impatient they are, the easier it is to fall into traps.

  • Stay Away from High Leverage: The current funding rate of 0.012% seems low, but after 8 hours of compounding, it will rise to 0.1%, and the cost of a 100x leverage position in one day exceeds 1%;

  • Keep a Close Eye on Grayscale Trends: If the GBTC premium rate narrows from -5% to -3%, it indicates that institutions are retreating, and you need to close positions immediately.

5. Historical Echoes: If it should break but doesn’t, great disaster is certain.

May 19, 2021, November 8, 2022, December 18, 2023—before every major slaughter in the crypto circle, there has been a 'trap for chasing the rise'. Either it is the 'thrilling narrative' of violent price surges by operators, or the 'bloodbath' of sudden crashes. But remember: in this game, operators always have one more trump card than you.


When the K-line rises, ask yourself: Is this a real breakout, or the poison of a dog operator? Perhaps the real survival wisdom is being prepared to escape when others are greedy.

##特朗普晚宴 ##美国加征关税