1. Market Observation
Keywords: BTC, ETH, AAVE
Jeffrey Ding, Chief Analyst at HashKey Group, expects Bitcoin to break its previous high soon, targeting $108,000! On the data front, the new capital channel of $100 billion and gradually solidifying market chips both indicate that this day will come soon.
First, the (GENIUS Stablecoin Bill) has passed the Senate procedural motion, and now the bill will enter the full Senate voting stage. Its passage is inevitable and will bring new funding channels to the digital currency market, with hundreds of billions in new funds expected to flow into the digital currency market through stablecoins. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has instructed staff in the policy department to begin drafting rules related to cryptocurrencies, indicating that they are preparing for the bill's passage. If this important bill is ultimately passed, it will become the first federal-level stablecoin legislation in the U.S., significantly impacting stablecoin regulation. Related concepts in the stablecoin sector, such as Frax and AAVE, have seen significant gains recently.
Secondly, Glassnode data shows that the illiquid supply has reached a historical peak. This indicates that the current Bitcoin rally is not driven by retail frenzy, but by multiple structural forces at play, including institutional inflows, historic supply tightening, and improvements in the macroeconomic environment. These factors suggest that Bitcoin is likely to follow a more sustainable and mature path, aiming for a new historical high, potentially reaching a plateau of $150,000 to $180,000 this year.
Spot Bitcoin ETF continues to attract capital inflows, indicating strong fundamental support. Even amidst Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and risk-averse sentiment in the stock market, BTC was able to rise over the weekend, further reinforcing its position as a store of value. This narrative is gaining more consensus and is expected to become a long-term bullish catalyst.
Meanwhile, the narrative in the entire crypto market is also heating up. The volatility market reflects the market's optimistic sentiment. Although spot prices are consolidating and macro uncertainties remain, the implied volatility of crypto assets continues to stay relatively high. The skew structure of Bitcoin call options remains stable across most maturities, suggesting that the overall market still maintains a structural bullish expectation.
2. Key Data (as of May 19, 12:00 HKT)
(Data Source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
Bitcoin: $106,826 (YTD +13.9%), daily spot trading volume $32.92 billion
Ethereum: $2,546 (YTD -23.7%), daily spot trading volume $20.48 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 70 (Greedy)
Average GAS: BTC: 4 sat/vB ETH: 0.51 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 63%, ETH 9.1%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: BTC, XRP, WCT, ETH, NXPC
24-hour BTC Long/Short Ratio: 1.01
Market Fluctuation: AI (+2.15%), PayFi (-4.2%)
24-hour Liquidation Data: A total of 82,209 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $214 million, including $56 million in BTC, $59 million in ETH, and $7.52 million in SOL
BTC Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line of the channel ($103,016.97), lower line of the channel ($100,977.03)
ETH Medium to Long-term Trend Channel: Upper line of the channel ($2,389.95), lower line of the channel ($2,342.62)
*Note: When the price is above the upper and lower lines, it indicates a medium to long-term bullish trend; conversely, it indicates a bearish trend. When the price is within the range or fluctuates repeatedly through the cost range, it indicates a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of May 20)
Bitcoin ETF: +$329 million
Ethereum ETF: +$64.89 million
4. Today's Outlook
Insiders: Société Générale will launch the world's first bank-issued US dollar stablecoin on Ethereum
Upbit will list OM on the KRW, BTC, and USDT markets
Bittensor (TAO) unlocked 210,000 tokens today, valued at approximately $79.3 million
Top 500 Largest Market Cap Gains Today: PI up 13.6%, TRUMP up 12.5%, FARTCOIN up 8.4%, UNI up 5.4%
5. Hot News
Texas Legislature passes Bitcoin Reserve Bill, pending governor's signature
SEC delays decision on XRP and Dogecoin ETF and seeks public opinion
Robinhood submitted a proposal to the SEC to establish a 'Regulatory Framework for Tokenized Real-World Assets'
New acting inspector general of the SEC prioritizes crackdown on cryptocurrency fraud
Ethereum DEX active users surged by 73%, with Uniswap dominating 97% of the market
Strive plans to acquire Mt. Gox claims to obtain 75,000 BTC to build a Bitcoin vault
Argentinian president closes department investigating LIBRA cryptocurrency scandal
Circle's newly established Catena Labs has completed $18 million in seed round financing, aiming to create an 'AI-native bank'
This article is supported by HashKey, the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and Asia's most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets. It aims to set new benchmarks for compliance, capital security, and platform protection for virtual asset exchanges.
