This week, the #BTC spot ETF has seen a continuous net inflow of nearly $1 billion over two days. According to CoinAnk data, last week (from May 12 to May 18), the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a net outflow of $479 million, but in the first half of May, institutions increased their holdings by 26,700 BTC, exceeding the miners' output during the same period by 3.7 times, creating a divergence structure of "capital outflow - physical accumulation".

The holding ratio of #ETH /BTC ETF has significantly increased, and the Ethereum ecosystem is showing reversal signals. The MVRV ratio of ETH/BTC has dipped to a five-year low, indicating significant potential for implied valuation recovery. Coupled with the Pectra upgrade introducing modular account abstraction, this has pushed the institutional holding ratio up to 19%, a new high since 2023. On-chain liquidity indicators show that the ETH exchange inventory has decreased by 12% weekly, while the futures open interest has increased by 23%, forming a technical pattern of "spot contraction - derivatives accumulation".

We believe this round of ETH/BTC exchange rate rebound by 38% may signal a market style shift: firstly, the outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds suggests that some institutions are turning to yield enhancement strategies, with ETH staking offering an annualized yield of 4.2% as an attraction; secondly, the Coinbase ETH futures premium rate has risen to 0.15%, indicating professional investors betting on a rebound; finally, the altcoin season index has risen to the 35 threshold, historical data shows that this level often triggers excess return cycles of over 30% for small and mid-cap tokens. However, caution is needed as Bitcoin miners may increase selling pressure— the MPI index has dropped to -1.2, combined with the shrinking block rewards after the halving, which could suppress overall market liquidity and delay the full explosion of the altcoin market.