This week's macro events and key forecasts for the crypto market are as follows:
#solana will host the #accelerate 2025 crypto summit from May 19 to 23;
May 20: The Mayor of New York City will advance the cryptocurrency plan before the crypto summit;
May 22: The #TRUMP dinner will be held on May 22, and the next phase plan for the token will be announced that day;
CoinAnk data shows that many Federal Reserve officials will speak during the period from Monday to Friday.
The core variables of the crypto market this week focus on two dimensions: policy regulation and political games, while also paying attention to the interaction between the technical ecosystem and macro liquidity. The Senate's vote on the "#GENIUS Bill" on May 19 may become a watershed moment for the stablecoin market. This bill requires issuers to hold 100% reserves of highly liquid assets and mandates annual audits for projects with a market cap exceeding $50 billion. Although this move may enhance market transparency and institutional participation, it might also stifle innovation space for small and medium-sized stablecoins. If the bill passes, the compliant and low-cost USDC may benefit, while the USDT, whose reserve transparency is in doubt, will face pressure.
The Mayor of New York City's push to advance crypto plans resonates with Trump's dinner policy narrative. New York City is attracting crypto companies through public-private partnerships, which may stimulate regional market activity; meanwhile, Trump announcing a token plan during the dinner continues his advocacy for a "crypto strategic reserve," potentially driving short-term speculation on the meme token TRUMP tied to personal IP. However, caution is needed for the policy reversal risks brought by political cycle fluctuations.
On the technical ecosystem front, the Solana summit and the launch of the Sahara AI testnet may boost market attention on high-performance public chains. If Solana announces an ecosystem support plan during the summit, it may alleviate the recent downturn in trading volume; the Sahara AI testnet marks a new stage in the integration of #AI + blockchain, potentially attracting institutional funds.
In terms of macro liquidity, the intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials may reinforce market expectations for the interest rate path. Current CME data shows that the probability of a rate cut in June is only 11.6%; if officials release hawkish signals, it may suppress the crypto market's risk appetite, leading funds to migrate towards stablecoins and other safe-haven assets. However, if the dollar index weakens due to easing rate cut expectations, it may trigger a safe-haven linkage effect between Bitcoin and gold.
