Today, the price of Ethereum is $2,521, down 2.75% in the last 24 hours, hitting a low of $2,380 before rebounding to around $2,500. Although there was a slight recovery today, it is still down 24% year-to-date, and the long-term trend has not improved. Why the drop?
Technical pressure is high.
There are many people waiting to sell off between $2,500 and $2,600 to break even; as soon as the price rises, it gets pushed back down, and short-term traders take the opportunity to exit.
Large investors are not buying, while retail investors are selling like crazy: On-chain data shows that large holders with over 10,000 coins have recently bought less, while small retail investors are frantically transferring coins to exchanges, indicating a focus on short-term speculation. The Federal Reserve mentioned that interest rate cuts might be delayed until the end of the year, tightening money supply, which hits high-volatility assets like Ethereum the hardest. Trump plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, raising market concerns about economic stagflation, causing funds to flow into gold for safety, which in turn drags Ethereum down with the U.S. stock market.
On-chain data conflict: 4.7 million ETH is trapped at $2,700-$2,800; now at $2,500, some people will sell to break even, putting pressure on the rebound. Technical indicators are contradictory: the weekly chart suggests a possible rebound, but the daily chart shows the downward trend is not over. Key moving averages at $2,520 and $2,300 serve as the boundary between bullish and bearish; a drop below $2,300 could lead to further collapse.
Institutions are not supportive: Funds for the Ethereum ETF have been withdrawn; for instance, BlackRock pulled out $160 million in a week, with money flowing into Bitcoin, making Ethereum's liquidity worse. Miners are also selling: After the Cancun upgrade, mainnet revenue plummeted by 99%, and miners cannot make money and have to sell coins; combined with the cost pressure after Bitcoin halving, ETH correlates to $2,300, worsening the price situation.
Operational suggestions:
Key levels: Support at $2,300 (200-day moving average) and $1,800; resistance at $2,600 and $2,800.
Short-term: A small position can be taken if it holds above $2,400; if it drops below $2,300, hold off. Long-term, wait for the Pectra upgrade and AI application explosion; if it breaks $2,800, the target is $3,700-$5,000.
Opportunities are fleeting, a correction is imminent; accumulate spot positions and take advantage of altcoins for huge profits! Doubling is not a dream; tap the avatar to follow me, and let's attend the bull market feast together!
