Brothers, the current market is like walking a mountain road in the middle of the night. The black swan's sudden negative wings have already flapped over our heads! Although Bitcoin (BTC) has stubbornly held up these past two days, the market already shows signs of a killing field - a small amount of stop-loss orders from the bulls below have been liquidated, and the main force is clearly testing the market's liquidation line. If it plunges again tonight, it will be a bloodbath.
Why do we say the black swan is coming? Three mountains are weighing down on us:
* **Trump wants to impose more tariffs:** A global trade war 2.0 is about to break out, and funds are panicking.
* **Moody's downgrades US sovereign rating:** Borrowing costs are soaring, and institutions are rushing to withdraw liquidity to protect themselves.
* **The Federal Reserve talks about cutting interest rates, but continues quantitative tightening:** The market's money bag is getting smaller and smaller, and altcoins are starving.
**Technical Death Cross**
Although Bitcoin is chanting slogans to rush to $110,000, everyone with eyes can see that this is a trap to lure more people in – even if it really rushes to $110,000, there will only be a few thousand dollars of space, which is not even enough for the main force to pull the cost! The real show is the gap filling.
* **First shot:** The $100,000 psychological defense line, if broken, directly look at the $92,000 - $96,000 gap.
* **Ultimate goal:** $90,000 - $92,000, the dense trading volume before the start of last year's bull market, this is the last coffin board for the bulls.
Pay close attention to the time window of the Fed meeting + options delivery date on the 21st-23rd, and it is likely that the outcome will be revealed.
Ethereum (ETH) has already collapsed, don't rush to buy the dip. The key support level of $2,300 has been lost, and miners and large staking households are frantically selling off. The mainnet revenue has plummeted by 99%, who can withstand it? On-chain data shows that whales are running away, don't go against the trend.
**Retail Survival Guide**
* Reduce your spot position to below 30%, and contract traders should just lie flat and not open orders.
* Keep enough U stablecoins and wait for the golden pit, and buy chips blindly below $90,000.
* **Exchange Liquidation Volume:** If a single hour of liquidation exceeds $500 million, decisively reduce your position.
* **The Fed says:** Any "hawkish" remarks that delay interest rate cuts are a signal to sell off.
**Summary:** Now is not the time to compare who earns more, but who lives longer. Once the black swan comes, 90% of altcoins will go to zero. Only by protecting your principal can you have the last laugh.
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