💼 Bitcoin-2025/26: Where could the price go?
Not financial advice; think for yourself. ⚖️
1️⃣ Bullish (≈ 60 %)
• Trigger: soft Fed policy + institutional ETF inflows.
• Target: $140–160 k by Q1-26.
• Logic: coin shortage after halving, "digital gold" against inflation.
• Risk: overheating (RSI > 80, funding > 0.15 %) → quick “dump”. 📊
2️⃣ Sideways (≈ 30 %)
• Trigger: global stagnation; balance between ETF buying and miner sales.
• Range: $85–115 k by the end of 2025.
• Sense: the market “parks” BTC; a zone for DCA, but no rally.
Metrics that will show the trend 🕵️♂️
ETF flows: > $500 million per week — bullish momentum; outflow — risk signal.
Hashrate/Difficulty: drop > 10 % per month = miner capitulation.
BVOL-Index: > 90 often precedes a reversal.
Futures basis (3 months): < 1 % or negative = exhausted market.
How to act cautiously 💡
• Diversification: even in a bullish scenario, -30 % “almonds” are possible.
• Cash cushion 10–20 % in stables for quick purchases.
• Monitor CPI and FOMC decisions — macro shapes the trend for several weeks.
📌 Invest only what you are willing to lose.
