Yesterday, after a preliminary trade negotiation consensus was reached between Tsinghua University and the beautiful country, US stocks soared. The Dow Jones closed up 2.8%, the S&P 500 rose 3.2%, and the Nasdaq climbed 4.3%. However, Bitcoin did not follow the surge in US stocks last night but chose to pull back instead, showing a trend independent of US stocks. Currently, the 4-hour trend has not changed, and after a short-term pullback and adjustment, the direction is still upward.
After the temporary agreement on tariffs between the US and China, the probability of an interest rate cut in July has dropped again to only 38.5%... and the probability of maintaining the current interest rate in July has reached 57.4%...
This probability distribution should change again after today's CPI is released. Since we have to wait until September after the July FOMC, if there is no interest rate cut in July, the earliest time for a rate cut will be postponed directly to September...
We have returned to the path of two interest rate cuts this year. Although the agreement was reached yesterday between the US and China, which is positive, the interest rate cuts have also been prolonged.
Next, how much is left of the new expectations and bullish outlook?
We can only observe as we go; you say it will immediately plunge deeply, but that’s not likely, especially since there is no negative news.
So after the US-China tariff agreement, why did US stocks rise while $BTC fell? Can $BTC continue to rise and reach new highs?
1- The biggest positive expectation has been fulfilled; is there a larger positive expectation? One that can compare with US-China relations? Currently not, so I took profits but the price drop doesn’t indicate negative news; a continuous decline is also unlikely. From the URPD data and candlestick analysis, the current support is at 100,700 (below that is 99,000).
2- The trade war is quiet; the properties of gold and the recession expectation have been postponed, so BTC was sold.
3- The expectation for interest rate cuts has not appeared yet; after all, it won't happen so soon. So, there is still no continuous expectation for positive speculation.
4- Today, the monthly inflation data CPI will be released, and it makes sense for funds to temporarily seek safety. Waiting for the CPI data to be released, hoping for positive results.
5- Waiting to see if the funds can overflow into BTC after this wave of US stock rises. At this time, BTC is also considered a risk asset.
Bitcoin experienced a top divergence in the 1-4 hour period, leading to a pullback. However, from a daily perspective, the overall trend has not broken, and there is MA10 support below, so even if a spike occurs, it is unlikely to fall below the 100,000 mark.
In the short term, it is obviously a spike to wash out the market, clear contract leverage, and after building momentum, Bitcoin will continue to challenge the previous high of 106,000 resistance; if it can drop to below 101,000 again in the near term, one can buy the dip gradually.
There is no need to panic about Bitcoin spot; Bitcoin reached a peak of around 106,000 dollars, just a step away from the historical high, and has basically resolved the previous round of trapped funds, which undoubtedly releases a strong bullish signal.
After a short-term adjustment of Bitcoin, it will definitely continue to challenge the historical high, and it will 100% break through 110,000 and set a new high, so hold on to your Bitcoin spot and don't get shaken out.
A giant whale bought 499 bitcoins today, valued at over 50 million dollars. In the recent market, whenever bitcoin pulls back, everyone is looking to buy the dip, and there are not many who are panicking.
$ETH
Encountered resistance at a key position and pulled back. Yesterday, due to tariff impacts, the attempt to break above the 2600 resistance was unsuccessful, leading to a pullback. Daily trading volume has started to show signs of reduction. If I had to set a target for the decline, I hope it is around 2250-2230.
Regarding altcoins:
In a bull market, one must embrace the bubble; meme coins are still the favorite of hot money. This week's hottest meme:
$trump 13 billion, 640,000 people, presidential coin.
$MOODENG 220 million, 74,000 people, a well-known hippo concept, suddenly skyrocketed several times, strong manipulation.
$goat 200 million, 90,000 people, the pioneer of the AI sector.
$pnut 400 million, 90,000 election concept coin.
$rato 30 million, 56,000 people, a new character from the creator of Pepe, the new big dog on the Ethereum chain.
Also, has everyone heard:
Trump is going to launch a new coin; it will still surge. Those who entered early will make money, but the upper limit will certainly not be that high.
Recently, whether in secondary or primary coins that have risen.
Those with positions can take a step back; they are likely to be absorbed by the inflow.
Then the question is which chain to launch on. It is recommended to have some on both Solana and Ethereum.
Can't rule out that this thing may launch on ETH; everyone buys ETH, ETH rises, and the ETH farmers unload.
