Last night, the crypto market staged a thrilling 'squeeze hunt'—BTC, in what seemed like a strong surge, concealed the main force's deadly trap of leveraging contracts. As retail investors eagerly chased the rise, the data revealed a 'false breakout driven by passive liquidations', and today's high-level fluctuations are the calm before the storm.

One, the night of inducing longs: how the main force uses liquidation orders to 'perform' a rise?

❶ Data anomaly: the truth behind the divergence of funds and transactions.

  • Contract open interest surges: in just 2 hours, it skyrocketed by 3.82% to $68.6 billion. Long positions are aggressively leveraged, but trading volume plummeted by 24%—this indicates that the rise is not driven by real buying but by passive liquidation of short positions 'lifting the price';

  • Options trading shrinks: hedge demand has dropped by 48.59%, indicating that institutions lack confidence in the market, and the main force has no intention of genuinely going long.

❷ Liquidation massacre: the deadly trap of 22 million short positions.

  • Precise explosion: the main force suddenly drives up the price in the dense short position area ($103,000), triggering $22.3 million in short liquidations, forming a vicious cycle of 'price rise → short liquidations → passive buying pushes up the price';

  • Cost trap: maintaining a positive funding rate of 0.008 means that for every contract held, longs must pay 0.8% in interest daily, and those buying at high prices are caught in a 'losing more the longer they hold' deadlock.

❸ Volume-price deception: contradictory signals from CVD and OBV.

  • CVD impulse jump: it seems like there is a surge of active buying, but it is actually forced transactions from liquidations, lacking sustained buying support;

  • OBV growth slowdown: the main force is pulling up while withdrawing, retail investors are taking over the chips that the main force is reducing at high levels, a typical 'inducing long and selling' tactic.

Two, top deconstruction: four indicators reveal 'false breakout and true inducing long'.

❶ The trap of Bollinger Bands: breakouts lead to being trapped.

  • 15-minute level: after briefly breaking above the upper Bollinger Band (105,500 USD), the price quickly fell back below the middle band (104,200 USD), forming a 'false breakout';

  • Deadly signal: the Bollinger Bands have narrowed to their lowest point in nearly 3 months, and a trend reversal is imminent. Historical data shows that 80% of narrow range fluctuations end with a 'downward break'.

❷ RSI divergence: a death warning of exhausted momentum.

  • Overbought sharp drop: the 15-minute RSI surged to 82 (extremely overbought) before quickly falling back to 58, forming a 'new price high + declining indicator' top divergence;

  • 45-minute level: RSI fell from 75 to 55, indicating a weakening rebound, showing that the bulls are losing strength.

❸ Trading volume scam: the trick of rising volume with price increases and decreasing volume with pullbacks.

  • Inducing long phase: during the rise, trading volume surged by 300% (reaching $20 billion), creating the illusion of 'the main force entering the market';

  • Withdrawal phase: during the pullback, trading volume suddenly dropped to $5 billion. The main force has quietly exited at high levels, leaving retail investors on guard.

❹ Position roller coaster: countdown to long liquidation.

  • High-level positions: although there has been a slight pullback, there are still 81,800 long positions lingering at high levels, which will serve as fuel for the main force to 'reverse and short';

  • Funding rate risk: a rate of 0.008 means that long positions must pay $548,000 in interest daily, and after 3 days, over $1.6 million in forced liquidation orders will flood the market.

Three, today's survival strategy: three response plans for the top fluctuation period.

❶ Long position holders: take profit and exit, refuse to indulge in fantasies.

  • Key price level: if BTC cannot stabilize above $105,000, immediately take profit and lock in gains;

  • Risk control: if it falls below $104,000 (Bollinger middle band), unconditionally stop-loss to avoid more than 50% profit retracement.

❷ Short hunters: wait for a pullback confirmation, precise targeting.

  • Entry signal: a pullback to the $105,000-$105,300 range, showing reversal patterns like 'shooting star' or 'dark cloud cover';

  • Stop-loss / target: stop-loss set at $105,800, target set at $102,000 (Bollinger lower band).

❸ Observers: cash is king, waiting for the lethal strike.

  • Cash discipline: do not participate in the 'top guessing game', patiently wait for one of the following signals:

    • Price falls below $102,000, confirming a break;

    • Funding rate turns negative, long positions panic completely;

  • Backup plan: if the price unexpectedly breaks above $106,000, give up shorting and wait for new opportunities.

Four, the main force's psychological warfare: why is 'chasing the rise cannon fodder'?

❶ Leverage harvesting logic.

  • The main force attracts retail investors to chase the rise through low-cost operations of 'small funds driving up + triggering liquidations', then reverses to short at high levels, achieving a 'double kill' of long and short positions;

  • Case study: the '$800 bait' of ETH in July 2024, where the main force used $50 million to drive up the price, triggering $500 million in liquidations, and subsequently profited over $200 million from shorting.

❷ Retail behavior trap.

  • Loss aversion: seeing others make money and unable to resist chasing the rise, not realizing they have become the main force's 'exit buyer';

  • Confirmation bias: selectively believing the news that 'the bull market has arrived' while ignoring dangerous signals from the data.

Conclusion: in the hunting ground, staying alive is more important than making money.

Last night's inducing rise was essentially the main force's precise hunt, exploiting retail investors' 'fear of heights to chase the rise'. In this high open interest and sharply reduced volatility top range, any chasing behavior can become 'cannon fodder'. Remember: the crypto market never lacks opportunities, but it lacks people who can survive in traps.


Today's trading core is simple: refuse to be a supporting actor in the main force's script. Whether it’s taking profits, shorting, or staying in cash, remember—during the top construction period, being conservative is not weakness but top-level survival wisdom.

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