Market trend logic breakdown:
From the 1-hour and 4-hour charts of SOL:
Short-term structure: After peaking around 184, SOL has continuously retraced, currently forming repeated tests in the 167 area. The 1-hour moving average system is fully in a death cross arrangement, and the bullish and bearish momentum has completed a reversal. The inability to push higher indicates strong selling pressure above.
Medium-term support: On the 4-hour chart, SOL is currently testing the convergence zone of EMA30 and MA60, with key support in the 165-166 range. If this is breached, it may lead to the first deep correction since the mid-April rally.
Indicator assistance: CCI has repeatedly fallen below the -100 axis, indicating a typical weak oscillation zone. RSI is similarly weak, testing around 30, and the short-term rebound strength is weak, with the rebound not accompanied by volume.
Operation strategy suggestion:
Today's direction: Mainly bearish outlook, waiting for breakout confirmation.
Current price: 167.50
First support level: 165.0
Second support level: 162.3
Support level: 171.2
Predicted optimal range for today (fluctuation range of 200-300 points):
If the bearish trend continues, today's extreme downside target may be in the 164.0-162.3 range.
If a short-term oversold rebound occurs, focus on resistance between 169.8-170.5 above. If this area holds, the rebound is unlikely to sustain.
Chasing shorts, wait for 167 to be breached before taking action, as this is a higher probability rhythm.
A rebound that does not break 170 only serves as a buffer for bears; chasing longs is likely to lead to losses.
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