The market shocks you into questioning life; one moment it soars, the next it crashes late at night. Is a bull market coming, or is the bear still here? This is not a philosophical question; it’s about the life and death of your wallet.
Today, let's speak plainly and teach you how to see through the true nature of bull and bear markets at a glance, no longer being a victim.
In short, distinguish between bull and bear markets: Bull market: prices rise daily, even bubble coins can soar, and everyone's circle is filled with 'I want to preserve blessings'.
Bear market: projects are dead, silence in the groups, K-lines look like ECGs, rising for a day and falling for three months.
If you don't want to be 'beaten' by the big players, you need to learn to read these signals.
Three hardcore signals to judge a bull market:
1. Prices not only rise but also persist.
It’s not the kind of market where prices rise and then drop; a true bull market is when it consistently pushes up for several weeks or months.
For example, the big bull from 2020 to 2021, where Bitcoin surged from 10,000 to 69,000, with low interest rates, monetary easing, and FOMO driving everyone to take off.
2. Emotions are running high, FOMO is overwhelming.
Have you noticed? When crypto groups start flaunting luxury cars, X is full of 'to the moon', and meme coins are rising by 50% daily... Congratulations, you might already be halfway up the mountain.
But here's a point: when emotions are at their peak, it often means you're not far from the top.
3. Policy + synergistic support.
A bull market is not built on slogans; it is supported by major institutions and big news—things like ETF, upgrades, Layer 2 explosions, and monetary easing from the US, all of which drive the market.
So how to identify a bear market? Don’t overlook these three 'cold winter signals'.
1. Continuous declines, small rebounds are all crushed.
Prices slide like a slide, each time lower than before. Just when you think it has bottomed out, it gives you another heavy blow.
A typical example is the wave in 2022, where it dropped from 69,000 to below 20,000; after the Terra and FTX implosions, the entire circle fell silent.
2. Social platforms are cooling off, faith is starting to waver.
No one is talking in the group, there's no coin trending on X, projects are all laying off, and a bunch of 'withdrawal liquidity' jokes are spreading wildly.
3. The overall environment is chaotic.
Interest rates rise, inflation is high, and regulatory authorities strike without warning. No one dares to touch risky assets, and funds are withdrawn, leading to despair in the crypto space.
How to judge bull and bear markets? Look at these core indicators:
✅ Trading volume
In a bull market, buying power is strong, and trading volume is high.
In a bear market, no one picks up the slack, leading to a quiet drop.
Understanding trading volume can prevent a lot of false breakouts.
✅ Market sentiment
Don't guess blindly; you can use the 'Fear and Greed Index', along with social activity + search volume + volatility for a comprehensive score. Being too greedy should raise alarms, while being too fearful might mean it's time to buy the dip.
✅ Technical indicators
When Bitcoin stands above the 200-day moving average, the probability of a bull market is high.
RSI > 70, beware of overbought conditions; <30, possible rebounds from oversold.
MACD cross, shrinking volume, and long upper shadows on K-lines; many details are worth checking.
✅ On-chain data
Are whales bottom-fishing? On-chain data shows outflows from exchanges, indicating a potential rebound.
Is the project team dumping and running? Be cautious of sudden failures when they aggressively enter exchanges.
Using data from miners, exchanges, and trading platforms, it's not a dream to get ahead.
In conclusion, let's speak plainly:
You don’t have to catch the bottom of a bull market every time, nor will you ever escape the peak. But you must clarify: is the current direction up or down?
If you judge correctly once, it can save you from one less 'chain stumble' and allow you to gain one more 'takeoff'.
During the transition between bull and bear markets is the training ground for ordinary people to become experts.
Do you currently see yourself as cannon fodder at the end of a bull market or as a builder during the early stages of a bear market?
Leave a comment about your thoughts, I’ll be waiting for you in the comments section.
