Technical analysis of Bitcoin (BTC/USD):
Current situation:
Bitcoin is currently trading around $104,000, with notable fluctuations over the past few days, according to recent analyses.
There is strong resistance at the $106,000 level, where Bitcoin has failed to break decisively, indicating the possibility of a bearish correction or continued sideways trading.
Key support levels are at $96,318 and $93,376, which are levels the price may target in the event of a correction.
Technical indicators:
Relative Strength Index (RSI): On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is approaching levels of 50 on the RSI, which is a neutral level that does not indicate overbought or oversold conditions. If it approaches 70, a bearish correction may begin.
Moving averages: The 50-day moving average currently supports the price around $92,947, reinforcing this level as strong support.
Elliott Waves: Some analysts believe Bitcoin is in the fifth (bullish) wave of a larger cycle, but its proximity to key resistance levels may lead to a short-term correction.
Potential scenarios for the upcoming week:
Bullish scenario: If Bitcoin breaks above $106,000 with strong momentum (daily close candle above this level), it may target $115,000, as some analysts have noted on TradingView.
Bearish scenario: If it fails to maintain support at $96,318, it may retreat to $93,376 or even $88,510, especially if selling pressure increases due to profit-taking.
Sideways scenario: It may continue to fluctuate between $96,000 and $106,000 if strong catalysts (such as regulatory news or economic data) do not emerge.
Fundamental analysis:
Positive factors:
ETF flows: Continued investment flows into Bitcoin ETFs in the United States enhance market liquidity and confidence.
Institutional support: Activity from large wallets (holding 10 to 10,000 Bitcoins) shows strong accumulation, with more than 83,000 Bitcoins accumulated last month.
Regulatory commitments: Support from U.S. President Donald Trump for the cryptocurrency industry, including discussions about Bitcoin reserves, enhances optimism.
Negative factors:
Profit-taking: After strong rallies in recent weeks, there is selling pressure from traders looking to lock in profits, especially at resistance levels.
Fear and greed index: The index is nearing levels of 73, indicating excessive enthusiasm that may precede sharp volatility.
Economic uncertainty: Upcoming Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates or trade tensions between the U.S. and China may negatively impact high-risk assets like Bitcoin.
Outlook for next week (May 19-26, 2025):
Most likely scenario: Continued sideways trading between $96,000 and $106,000 with a tendency for a bearish correction towards $93,376 if resistance at $106,000 is not broken. This correction may be healthy to relieve pressure before a new bullish wave.
Key levels to watch:
Resistance: $106,000, $115,000.
Support: $96,318, $93,376, $88,510.
Important indicators: Monitor the weekly candle close on May 19, as analysts consider it critical for determining the trend. A strong close above $106,000 may enhance the bullish scenario, while a close below $96,318 may confirm the correction.
Tips for traders:
For short-term traders: Wait for a breakout above $106,000 with strong buying momentum, or target short selling opportunities at resistance levels with a tight stop loss.
For long-term investors: Corrections to support levels (such as $93,376) may present good accumulation opportunities, especially with strong institutional momentum.
Risk management: Do not invest more than you can afford to lose, and use stop-loss orders to mitigate risks, as cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile.
Risk warning:
Trading in cryptocurrencies involves high risks due to extreme volatility. It is advised to conduct thorough personal analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The data provided here is not investment advice, but an analysis based on available information.