1. Core assessment of short-term trends
Tonight's Ethereum market trend key focus is on the important price level of 2495. The performance of the 4-hour candlestick at this price will become the core basis for judging whether the current pullback has ended.
- Bullish confirmation signal: If the 4-hour candlestick effectively holds above 2495, and the subsequent two periods continue to close above this price, it indicates that this wave of 4-hour level pullback has officially ended, and bullish forces regain dominance. A new upward market is expected to start, and the market may gradually enter an upward channel.
- Bearish warning signal: Conversely, if the Ethereum price cannot maintain above 2495 on the 4-hour level, it indicates a lack of momentum for minor rebounds, and bearish forces still hold the advantage. The market is likely to continue its pullback trend and remain in a phase of adjustment.
2. Distribution of key levels and strategy reference
(1) Upward resistance level
1. First resistance level: 2534
- Technical characteristics: This position is at the upper edge of the previous price consolidation range, where a large number of trapped positions and profit-taking positions are concentrated. When the Ethereum price rises to this point, dual selling pressure will directly hinder short-term upward movement, becoming the primary hurdle for bulls to overcome.
2. Mid-term resistance level: 2563
- Technical characteristics: Located in the overlapping area of key moving average resistance and important Fibonacci resistance levels, forming strong resistance to price upward movement. To achieve an effective breakthrough, not only sufficient buying power is needed but also a shift in overall market sentiment towards optimism.
3. Trend breakthrough level: 2600
- Technical characteristics: Once the Ethereum price successfully holds above this point, it will confirm its entry into a new upward channel, and the subsequent upward space is expected to open significantly, indicating that a new round of strong upward momentum is about to begin.
(2) Downward support level
If the 4-hour level fails to hold above 2495, it is expected to trigger a new round of pullbacks, with the subsequent support levels being:
1. Primary support level: 2445
- Technical characteristics: Support formed by the convergence of short-term moving averages, which is also an important psychological barrier that has been tested multiple times in the past. It can buffer the impact of bearish dips to some extent.
2. Secondary support level: 2406
- Technical characteristics: As a strong support level built on previous price lows, if this point is breached, market panic may spread rapidly, triggering larger-scale sell-offs and causing prices to accelerate downward.
3. Strong support level: 2361
- Technical characteristics: This point is located in the support area of multiple cycle moving averages and is a key strategic position for the contest between bulls and bears. The outcome here directly influences Ethereum's subsequent medium to long-term trend. A breach could trigger a deep correction.
3. Summary
The core of Ethereum's short-term trend lies in the key point of 2495, where bulls and bears are battling. If the price can effectively stabilize above this level, bulls are expected to challenge the resistance in the range of 2534 - 2600; if it cannot hold, then caution should be exercised regarding the risk of price retracing to the 2445 - 2361 area, which is marked by volatility and uncertainty. It is recommended to closely monitor the changes in the 4-hour candlestick pattern and strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies, while reasonably controlling position sizes.$ETH #ETH走势分析
