I. Core Judgment of Short-term Trend
Tonight's key point in the Bitcoin market is the price level of 103390. The performance of the 4-hour level candlestick at this position will become an important basis for judging whether the current correction has ended.
- Bullish Confirmation Signal: If the 4-hour candlestick effectively stays above 103390, and the subsequent two periods close above this level, it indicates the end of the 4-hour level correction, with bullish strength starting to dominate, and a new upward trend is expected to begin, the market may gradually enter an ascending channel.
- Bearish Warning Signal: Conversely, if Bitcoin's price fails to stay above 103360 at the 4-hour level, it indicates insufficient momentum for minor rebounds, and bearish forces remain strong, making it likely that the trend will continue to retrace, with the market remaining in an adjustment phase.
II. Key Point Distribution and Strategy Reference
(I) Upward Pressure Level
1. First Resistance Level: 104250
- Technical Characteristics: This position is the upper edge of the previous price oscillation and consolidation range, accumulating a large number of trapped positions and profit-taking orders. When Bitcoin's price rises to this level, dual selling pressure will directly hinder short-term upward movements, becoming the primary barrier that bulls need to break through.
2. Mid-term Pressure Level: 104940
- Technical Characteristics: Located in the overlapping area of critical moving average suppression and significant Fibonacci resistance levels, it creates strong pressure on price upward movement. To achieve an effective breakthrough, not only is sufficient buying power needed, but the overall market sentiment must also turn optimistic.
3. Trend Breakthrough Level: 105860
- Technical Characteristics: Once Bitcoin's price successfully stabilizes at this level, it will confirm its entry into a new upward channel, and the subsequent upward space is expected to be significantly opened, indicating that a new round of strong bullish momentum is about to begin.
(II) Downward Support Level
If the 4-hour level fails to stabilize above 103360, it is expected to trigger a new round of retracement, with support levels below as follows:
1. Primary Support Level: 102540
- Technical Characteristics: Formed by the dense intersection of short-term moving averages, it also serves as an important psychological defense line tested multiple times in the past, capable of buffering the impact of bearish downward pressure to some extent.
2. Secondary Support Level: 101460
- Technical Characteristics: As a strong support level formed by previous price lows, if this level is lost, market panic may spread rapidly, triggering larger scale selling behavior, leading to accelerated price declines.
3. Strong Support Level: 100670
- Technical Characteristics: This level is in the key strategic area of support where multiple cycle moving averages converge, and its gain or loss directly affects the subsequent medium to long-term trend of Bitcoin. Once it breaks down, it may trigger a deep correction.
III. Summary
The core of Bitcoin's short-term trend lies in the battle between bulls and bears in the range of 103390 - 103360. If the price can effectively stabilize above 103390, bulls are expected to challenge the pressure range of 104250 - 105860; if it cannot stabilize above 103360, caution is needed for the risk of the price retracing to the area of 102540 - 100670, with volatile movements full of uncertainty. It is recommended to closely monitor the changes in the 4-hour candlestick pattern, strictly implement stop-loss and take-profit strategies, and reasonably control positions.$BTC #BTC走势分析 
