BTCVSETH Weekly K Trend Comparison

1. Bitcoin (BTC)

1. Macro Policies and Fundamentals (Medium-term Positive):

The Trump administration recently reached a tariff agreement with the UK, and the results of the US-China tariff negotiations in Switzerland in May have eased concerns about trade friction. Coupled with the SEC's pro-crypto chair nomination and expectations for the passage of the 'Stablecoin Regulatory Act', this has strengthened market confidence in US crypto policies.

Institutional Funds:

BTC spot ETF has seen several days of net inflows, with total asset net value surpassing $112.7 billion, accounting for 5.86% of BTC's total market capitalization, indicating strong institutional allocation demand.

2. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment:

BTC is relatively stronger compared to ETH, with price momentum oscillating from weekly highs. The current price is fluctuating around $102,500-$103,500, with a peak of $105,819 on May 12, close to the previous high of $109,588, but is facing short-term profit-taking pressure.

The MACD fast and slow lines are converging (red bars shortening), indicating weakening bullish momentum, requiring attention on the $100,000 level for a pullback and stabilization. If it breaks above $105,000, it may open up upward space; if it corrects, support is seen in the $95,000-$97,500 liquidity range.

2. Ethereum (ETH)

1. Macro Policies and Fundamentals

ETH is relatively weaker compared to BTC, with the technical upgrade Pectra completed (reducing transaction costs by 20%), optimizing Layer 2 performance, and promoting the recovery of the DeFi and NFT ecosystem, with TVL rebounding to $77 billion.

ETF staking expectations: The ETH spot ETF staking feature may be approved soon, with proposals from institutions like BlackRock supporting a 'crypto treasury bond' model, potentially bringing in billions of dollars.

Institutional Allocation: Hedge fund ETH holdings grew by 15% in Q1 2025, with AI + DeFi innovation projects (like Unilabs) attracting fund diversion, and the ETH/BTC trading pair rebounding to 0.052 BTC.

2. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment

Price Momentum: The weekly rebound is strong (50% increase from May 7-13), with the current price testing resistance around $2,500 (2023 high of $2,700), and short-term support around $2,400 (cost area of 6.75 million ETH holdings).

The MACD weekly red bars below the zero axis are shortening, indicating a decline in bearish momentum. If it breaks above $2,750 and holds, the target points to $3,000; if it fails, it may test support in the $2,250-$2,000 area.

Market Sentiment: Retail FOMO sentiment is heating up, with a surge in ETH bullish leveraged positions, leading to $650 million in liquidations within 24 hours, but caution is needed for high-level distributions and high leverage risks.