$BTC Weekly trend formation!

Is it a pump and dump or is a crazy bull market coming!

In April, nearly $3 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs, and another $1.6 billion flowed in from May to now. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that the flow of funds is mostly directional bets, not arbitrage trades.

On the policy front, New Hampshire became the first U.S. state to pass strategic Bitcoin reserve legislation, with 19 other states considering similar bills, and Arizona pushing forward cryptocurrency custody and strategic reserve legislation. At the federal level, the Senate rejected the stablecoin regulatory bill "GENIUS Act," stabilizing market risk appetite.

Macroeconomically, revisions to Trump's tariff policies have boosted the stock market and the dollar, lowering the chances of recession and reducing market volatility. Bitcoin benefits from rising institutional demand, favorable policies, and a warming macro environment, leading investors to actively go long.

Although these data releases show positive policy news, Bitcoin currently at the $100,000 mark needs more off-market funds to break new highs, rather than just shouting slogans. Although the current technical pattern has formed, there are signs of a potential pump and dump, and a confirmation of a retest is needed.

Currently, the peak after breaking $100,000 is between $105,800 and $104,950 and $104,440. The peaks are decreasing, and while the bottoms have slightly risen, a washout of $2,000 to $3,000 is clearly insufficient. Without a $10,000 adjustment for a clean wash, it will need to shake a bit to rise smoothly. There is demand for a retest at $95,000 to $97,000; otherwise, the bullish market won’t easily break through $105,000 to reach $110,000, or even create new highs.

Recently, there is extremely bullish sentiment in the market, with a general prediction of a significant rise starting in July when interest rates are cut 📈, easily overlooking that the market always operates on human nature. When everyone thinks that a rate cut is necessary for the rally to start, it could directly rebound from $75,000 to $105,000. Now that the market believes a rate cut is imminent, Bitcoin is expected to create new highs, and a slight pullback may lead to locking in buy-the-dip opportunities, which is when caution should be exercised.