Recently, the new agreement reached in the China-U.S. tariff negotiations appears to be a compromise where both sides take a step back, but upon closer examination, there are many underlying intricacies.

The agreement signed on May 12 in Geneva resembles a temporary ceasefire after a match between two skilled players. On the U.S. side, it seems like a concession as they have canceled most of the additional tariffs, but they have not budged on critical issues. High-tech fields like semiconductors and AI chips remain heavily guarded, and they are still keen on having China open its rare earth resources and facilitate digital yuan settlements, indicating a very strategic calculation.

On the Chinese side, the response has been quite clever. By shifting part of the supply chain to Southeast Asia through RCEP, especially in the automotive parts sector, new avenues have been found. The control over rare earths has directly choked the U.S. military-industrial complex, affecting the production of advanced equipment like the F-35. This maneuver not only buys time for development but also creates breathing room for the domestic semiconductor industry.

To truly assess the competition, one must look at the technology sector. Although tariffs have loosened, the technology blockade has not been relaxed at all. However, China's progress in the chip sector in recent years is indeed impressive, with some domestic chips already matching international standards, and breakthroughs are being made in critical areas like photolithography machines and memory chips. The promotion of the digital yuan is also advancing steadily, posing a potential challenge to the dollar system.

How will this game develop in the future? The U.S. is rallying its allies to create a "de-China" supply chain, while China is consolidating regional cooperation through RCEP. New areas such as digital trade and green tariffs may become the next battleground. However, to be fair, the agreement has been signed, but whether it can be implemented remains a question mark. If there are changes in the U.S. political landscape, the tariff stick might be wielded again.

How long do you think this agreement can last? Can China's breakthroughs in key technologies change the rules of the game? Feel free to discuss your views in the comments section! If you want to know more about economic and trade dynamics, you can follow me! #关税