Many people dismissively say that those who have been through several cycles in the crypto space and made a lot of money are gamblers and just lucky.
Let me tell you a truth: do not be envious; those who have gained significant wealth in the crypto space and managed to keep it are not lucky; don't dispute that.
I won't talk about how many pitfalls existed in the ancient times; they were definitely more thrilling than now. Just focusing on the present, those who made big money and held onto it surely avoided all of the following actions regarding their large positions:
1. Open contracts.
2. Have bought a large amount of non-Bitcoin.
3. Put all funds in exchanges.
4. High-frequency trading, trying to sell high and buy low.
Do not underestimate these four things; if you do not pay close attention to the crypto space, you will not understand.
Those who can make big money in the crypto space must have a deep focus on it and have traded continuously in the crypto space in the past. These people, after making big money, preserved the four principles mentioned above, indicating they must have suffered significant losses in those areas, and after their understanding was refined, they could build up significant funds in the crypto space without relying on the aforementioned gambling methods. Do you think this is luck?
Most people in the crypto space are just '曾经赚过钱' (have made money before) because their paths to profits are limited to the above few ways, and naturally, they will lose due to these methods. When a person realizes that the above methods cannot truly lead to wealth, yet cannot find other ways to become wealthy in the crypto space, that's the real problem.
Let me tell you, those who have truly made money in the crypto space and have preserved it for the long term must meet at least one of the following conditions, in addition to avoiding the pitfalls mentioned above:
1. There is a flagship product in the crypto space.
No matter how much you know, you'll step into the pitfalls mentioned above and lose coins you should have let go. But the key is, you have a product that continuously makes money in the crypto space; this product ensures that no matter how many pitfalls you fall into, as it collects coins, you will always recover the lost coins. As you gradually become wiser and stop stepping into those pitfalls, your coins will increase—leading figures like CZ and Brother Sun have all stepped into those beginner's pitfalls, but the key is having a product that continuously helps them earn back their coins, which you do not have; that's the crux.
2. Have the ability to make continued regular investments.
If you do not have the capability to create a product, then the easiest match for you is this. Stop saying, 'Bitcoin won't increase much anymore'; this is not a reason for you to gamble with a large position—when has Bitcoin ever run fast? Previously, Bitcoin was low, but compared to now, at that time Bitcoin and the altcoins were both rising slower. So where are those altcoins now? Give yourself 10 years, gradually invest the money you earn over the next 10 years, and aim for your earnings to multiply by 5 or 10—this is the best way for an ordinary person to enter the crypto space.
The premise here is to have a good locking mechanism; you can only enter but not exit. A good regular investment environment means you shouldn't invest just because you have money today or refrain from investing when you don't have money. You shouldn't invest heavily just because you think it's low, nor refrain from investing when you think it's too high. You also need to have excellent off-market funding capabilities—your ability to make money enhances the effectiveness of the above rules.
None of the above premises can be absent. A person who can wield influence outside the market but remains humble and obedient once inside is truly remarkable; this money is what you deserve.
3. And it was locked.
I participated in an old fund that was locked for 5 years. During this time, I experienced too many ups and downs in the market, but this money was locked, and I couldn't touch it. Have there been times in reality when I needed money? Of course. During this time, I also bought a house, and when investment returns weren't coming back, I found myself needing to invest in other projects and briefly turned to the bank for a loan.
Later, as I played with the coins in the ups and downs of investment and entrepreneurship, I ended up with fewer and fewer coins. But when this fund distributed profits, I found that the shares added up to several hundred bitcoins—although the fund still didn't outperform using the money directly for national currency, the issue is that the loss percentage of this fund is already much smaller than the portion I held myself. Such things are commonplace in the crypto space. Some loser bought in and later went to jail for beating someone, but when he came out, he was worth over a billion—this isn't a story; it's reality. And if he hadn't been jailed, he would have spent all those coins. Since then, I voluntarily locked away my largest share of Bitcoin and have kept it locked until now. If you believe in Bitcoin, convert everything you have into Bitcoin now, actively lock it away for 10 years, and then start struggling from scratch. In 10 years, look back; the results will likely exceed all the seemingly more useful things you did in those 10 years.
Once again, I have never seen a big shot become a big shot solely by trading—none have done it. Trading will not make you a big shot, nor will leverage; there is no such thing as luck in the crypto space.
Your understanding must be in place first; only then can it become your best tool for wealth; otherwise, you will turn into its slave. Last month, someone commented on the article saying they sold their house to all-in on a 2x leveraged long position on Ethereum at 3600, betting on the upgrades in March and April. I asked why they still leveraged when I said not to; they said they were optimistic about the future and thought 2x would not explode; could Ethereum really fall another half?
Yes. I also have high hopes for the future, but I respect the market. I will never open leverage here. It's not because I'm cautious, but because I understand, and he does not.
In the second half of 2024, I earned about 15 million from trading Bitcoin. The capital multiplied 50 times. If it weren't for withdrawing funds twice to buy houses, it should have been 85 times. Today, I will share a few key points; these experiences are worth 60 million, and I hope they can help you.
1. Only do high sell low buy for BTC/ETH.
2. Mainly use the important pressure moving average group above the 4H level to determine entry points for short positions in batches. For example, if the MA60 moving average above the 4H level consistently suppresses the price, then use this moving average as the timing for entering short positions. Stop-loss: Place it above the previous high after a spike followed by a pullback. For example, if the pressure level is 2440 and the spike reaches 2450, then set the stop-loss above 2450.
3. Generally use the support level just below the same level or one level higher as the entry point for batch buying. Stop-loss: Set it below the previous low after a dip followed by a rise. For example, if the support level is at 2320 and the spike reaches 2310, then set the stop-loss below 2310, near 2300.
4. Stop-loss principal: 20% of total principal; if reached, no new positions will be opened that day. Daily operations generally focus on two trades, with single trade stop-loss controlled at 10%, and the position size of each trade should remain consistent.
5. Try to enter the market in batches; do not fire all your bullets at once! Try to follow the trend when opening positions; if the main trend is bearish, try to open short positions, and vice versa.
① When the overall market trend is good, chase the trending coins.
② Control the profit-loss ratio, keeping it around 3:1.
③ Daily stop-loss retracement is 15%-20% of the principal; if reached, no new positions will be opened that day.
6. Smash market conditions: Wait for a chance to enter in batches while remaining out of the market. If there are no opportunities, just stay out; in this kind of market, not losing money is equivalent to making money.
7. Profit protection stop-loss: When the conditions of the day opening have not triggered a stop-loss and the same level K-line pattern has not shown a pattern break, you can not use a profit protection stop-loss. As long as one of the two conditions is not met, then you must apply a profit protection. ETH: 20 points of floating profit after profit protection; BTC: 350 points of floating profit after profit protection.
8. Trailing stop-loss: ETH: Move trailing stop after 35 points of floating profit, using 3/15-minute levels for movement. BTC: Move trailing stop after 500 points of floating profit, using 3/5-minute levels for movement.
9.1. Never think about hitting it big all at once.
2. Only trade in the market that belongs to you! Learn to stay out of the market, do not forcefully open positions.
3. Do not trade overnight.
4. Try not to open positions on weekends. 5. After being stopped out, control your mindset.
In the crypto circle, if you manage your positions well, you will outperform the vast majority. Next, I will introduce two methods of position management:
1. Left-side position management 2.3.5
1) Do not fire all the bullets in your hand at once; buy in batches.
(2) You can divide your funds into several parts. When you are unsure of the bottom, buying in batches is the most suitable method to average the cost price.
(3) The bottom for replenishing positions should be handled flexibly according to market changes; do not replenish too frequently, as that has a negative effect on averaging the coin price. Advanced investors who are keen on bottom fishing can use 20%, 30%, or 50%.
(4) The initial capital for entering the market is relatively small. If the coin price does not rise and continues to fall, gradually increase the position, and the proportion of the increase should be larger, thereby averaging the cost. This method has relatively low initial risk, and the higher the funnel, the more substantial the profit.
2. Right-side position management 3.3.2.2
1) Buy 1: When the 5-day moving average crosses above the 10-day moving average, increase the position by 30%.
(2) Buy 2: When the price effectively breaks through the life line, continue to add 30% to the position when pulling back to the life line, ensuring that the total position reaches 60% during the early stages of the upward trend.
(3) Buy 3: Break through the neck line or other important pressure levels, and then pull back and stabilize again, indicating that the reversal upward pattern is established. Increase the position by another 20%. The total position should reach 80%, holding on for further increases.
(4) Buy 4: When the coin price is above the life line and the 5-day moving average crosses above the 10-day moving average again, this is a typical signal to accelerate upward. At this time, you should promptly buy the remaining 20% of your position to maximize profits.
Ultimately, the difficulty in earning Q lies not in the method, but in execution. A trading system is a weapon that allows you to achieve stable profits. It can help you identify key levels, discover entry signals, and find trading opportunities that can make you money.
So, to put it another way, as long as you have a stable trading system, just act on the opportunities that arise within the system. If you lose, you can always seek revenge; just do what you should do, and leave the rest to the market. Ultimately, you will always be able to cover the losses with profits.
However, the biggest problem for 99% of people is that they do not have their own trading system. Therefore, they fear losing money when trading because once that money is lost, it can't be earned back. Even if they get lucky and earn it back, they will eventually lose it all through their own abilities.
I have been in the market for many years, deeply understanding its opportunities and traps. If your investments are not going well and you feel unjust about the losses, leave a 999 in the comments! I will share insights.
