Master discusses hot topics:
With this week's CPI from the U.S. and last night's PPI and retail data making a strong push, I've seen overseas media saying the economy is stable, inflation is mild, and rate cuts are imminent.
Don't be fooled, the lagging effect of tariffs has not fully manifested, and the so-called experts in the market haven't mentioned it at all. Not to mention the potential stagflation risk brought by the decline in service industry data, no one will say anything about it. Are these old wall lamps just to stabilize market sentiment, so retail investors obediently hold on?
But when you come back to the market and find that the trend is clearly not buying, and we are still far from actual interest rate cuts, the upward movement lacks a story. Horizontal consolidation and waiting for a decline might be the more reliable approach. Once the main force finds the stop-loss position, then jumping in on the rate cut trend will reach its peak.
Back to Bitcoin, after the liquidation of 100.8K on the 13th, the liquidity speed of price movements has dropped drastically, cutting off more than 50%! This indicates that range fluctuations require patience; staying calm is essential to gather enough energy.
The only liquidity zone worth noting is between 105K and 106.5K. If it continues to surge upward, it might get targeted for liquidation by market makers or large players. If the shorts above 106K are cleared, it would still be possible to continue shorting.
Currently, the timing for clearing the bulls is still insufficient, and the bull liquidity below is slowly accumulating and is more evenly distributed. If the breakout fails or the current range is broken, we will see a large appearance of bulls after each small rebound, which will indicate a sustained downward momentum.
So as long as the shorts are not cleared out, it will continue to fluctuate in the range until next Monday. After three days of wear and tear, both long and short liquidity will gather, and as long as one side has enough volume and stable distribution, once it breaks out, it can quickly widen the gap.
Speaking of Ethereum, after rebounding to the current range, the bulls have already been chewed up quite a bit. The market will either consolidate around 2500 or drop sharply.
Clear out the remaining bulls and then have a refreshing drop to restart the new market. Focus on the 2400 integer level; if it holds, don't panic, and the upward momentum will still be strong. If it breaks, this wave of Ethereum's market will completely change character.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
Second resistance level: 105500
First resistance level: 104500
Support level reference:
Second support level: 103500
First support level: 102800
Today's suggestions
Bitcoin held the previous low around 101.5K after yesterday's pullback and rebounded significantly, returning above 104K. The area around 100K is often a tug-of-war zone for bulls and bears, going back and forth; a cautious approach is recommended.
As long as the price remains above the upward trend line, the rebound idea can be maintained, buying on dips. This rebound has already broken through all moving averages and formed support below. Focus on the 200-day moving average as a basis for resistance and support, relying on the moving average support and watching for buying opportunities in the N-shaped rise.
In the short term, we are still testing the first resistance level at 104.5K. You can wait for a pullback and then enter the ultra-short term to observe the strength of the breakout in this area. After confirming the breakout through consolidation, you can enter according to the trend.
Since the coin price has rebounded, the support range is raised to 103K to 103.5K, which is a reasonable pullback range and an ideal profit-loss ratio point. Currently, the coin price is still above all moving averages, so moving averages can be set as segmented support to re-enter for another rebound.
5.16 Master's wave segment placement:
Long entry reference: enter long in the range of 101000-101500 in batches. Target: 103500-104500
Short entry reference: enter short in the range of 104500-105500 in batches. Target: 103500-102800
If you truly want to learn from a blogger, you must follow continuously rather than jumping to conclusions after only a few looks at the market. This market is full of performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize shorts, making it seem like they 'always catch the tops and bottoms,' but in reality, they are just playing catch-up. The bloggers worth following will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
