Master talks about hot topics:
Continuing from what the Master said yesterday, the current 106.6k level can still be poked. But don't think it will keep surging; the long-term direction still lacks clear signals.
Because once the price rises above 106.6k, it is very likely to spike and then retract; if the upward momentum runs out, it will pull back and continue to oscillate. Here’s the conclusion: if you have short positions that are underwater, don’t rush to cut them; give Bitcoin a chance for a small new high and a false breakout.
If it really stands firm, the accumulation of long leverage will accelerate, providing an opportunity to break even. But if it’s a false breakout, it’s simply trying to cut you off, so be clear about the situation. If your long position is underwater, don't stubbornly hold on; if a new high is attempted but lacks fuel, don’t be greedy; take your profits first and then observe.
If the false breakout doesn’t happen, look for another entry opportunity; once a false breakout occurs, don't hesitate, follow the pullback immediately. The key point is the death line at 100800, and the stop-loss must be rigid.
Speaking of Ethereum, recently every new high has been followed by a slight pullback before continuing upwards. Although it seems stable, the recent surge in Ethereum came after a significant drop, when funds took the opportunity to buy cheap, not supported by any new narrative.
Now we have entered a densely concentrated area, with sellers on top and buyers at the bottom. The main theme in the upcoming period will likely oscillate and digest the trapped positions in the range of 2413 to 2820. I don't expect Ethereum to soar to the sky.
In plain language, if you want Ethereum to truly return as a king, it still relies on the entry of American capital big shots and the emergence of new stories. Otherwise, this self-rescue rebound could change at any time. Once market consensus emerges, funds will swarm in, and it could very well be a false market out of control.
The rebound itself is not bad, but it requires more caution. In April, I mentioned in an article that this wave is a small unilateral upward trend. Compared to the wild surge in 2023, it hasn't been that fierce in the short term.
There have been various baiting actions to induce shorts frequently, and it is still within the adjustment cycle of 4 to 12 hours. The trend in the larger cycle hasn’t changed, and the likelihood of a short-term reversal is also low.
Master's Trend Analysis:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 104800
Second resistance level: 104000
Support level reference:
First support level: 102300
Second support level: 101600
Today's suggestion:
Bitcoin has formed a diamond top pattern on the 4-hour chart, which technically is a common signal for a market top, indicating that the trend may turn bearish.
However, the price is still oscillating at the upper edge of the box, so there is no need to prematurely switch to a bearish mindset. Once it breaks below the support line of the box, consider going short and look for opportunities to buy low, which could serve as a new ultra-short-term entry point.
First resistance at 104k has tried to break through multiple times without success, confirming that the pressure here is very strong. Only if a strong breakthrough occurs and stabilizes can we expect further upward movement.
Even if the coin price breaks through 104K, if it cannot raise the high points, the bullish trend will still be limited. If there are positive news and increased volume accompanying the 104K vicinity, the probability of refreshing the historical high will be greater.
Currently, the first support at 102.3k can be set as a key short-term support zone. If it falls to this range, it can serve as a suitable ultra-short-term entry point in terms of risk and reward comparison. For now, it seems unlikely to directly break below 100K, but instead will consolidate above 100K.
Due to the increasing expectations of a decline, if a pullback occurs in operations, one can pay attention to the support at the low point as a potential entry point. If the price rebounds to 104K without clear positive market sentiment, it can be seen as a false breakout, and one should directly short.
5.15 Master’s Band Pre-Set:
Long entry reference: Not applicable
Short entry reference: Gradually short in the range of 104000-104800, target: 102300-101600
If you genuinely want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than jumping to conclusions after just a few market views. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they 'always catch the tops and bottoms,' but in reality, it’s all just hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than just jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
