Master discusses hot topics:
The promised CPI drop was supposed to boost the probability of a July rate cut? In the end, the macro big shots were all serious and still not buying it, with the interest rate swap market directly giving a 35.9% chance. It's really frustrating, how can I dare to believe you?
Inflation was hit by tariffs, prices are rising, but the rebound has inertia. This transmission process is unstoppable; if the next data doesn’t throw out hard evidence, a July rate cut is out of the question!
If we still can't wait for a rate cut, then we have to pinch our fingers with the interest rates, and the earliest we can breathe easy is in September. Back to that old routine of two rate cuts, who hasn’t experienced it?
Back to the market, for now, we can only walk and watch. But Master hears someone asking if there will be a big drop soon? I think there's no reason for that, no bad news, just a fluctuation.
The net inflow of trading volume is tightening, doesn’t this signal that the script is ongoing? Don't mess around. On the macro schedule, apart from Friday's inflation expectations and consumer confidence index, the rest is really a boring process.
Speaking of liquidity, this wave is not like that situation where you want to rush to vomit after drinking too much. Except for a bit of blood at 106k, other places are still relatively scarce. Even if there's a big liquidation, it won't last long, and if prices rise, it will trigger a new round of spike liquidations.
Once it hits above 106.6k, a visible pullback will begin again. If liquidity doesn’t follow, bulls can only be trapped inside and self-entertain. Conversely, bears may also be reluctant to enter, and we have to be more restrained in our bearish mindset. After all, the trend hasn’t broken; continuing to be bullish is not unreasonable.
In simple terms, the current market is in a bullish framework with range fluctuations, making room for the channel, allowing the upward space to build momentum. A false breakout could come at any minute, and then it will test above 106k again.
Master looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 105100
Second resistance level: 104600
Support level reference:
First support level: 103300
Second support level: 102300
Today's suggestions:
In the short-term pullback of the coin price, you can use the 60 and 120-day moving averages as short-term support areas. As long as the coin price can stabilize between 103 to 103.3K, there are still opportunities for bulls to continue.
If we want to see the continuation of bulls in the short term, it’s best to first build a base in the range of the first support level 104.3 to 104.6K, and then break upwards. If this area is repeatedly tested without breaking through, we need to be wary of the short-term decline risk brought by selling above.
If we can successfully stand above 104.6K and stabilize in the range of the second resistance level 104.6–105.1K, it will open up a larger upward momentum. However, the probability of falling below the first support of 103.3K in the short term is relatively high.
But as long as it can hold and stabilize at the convergence of the 60 and 120-day moving averages, there is hope for a short-term rebound. If the upward trend line and moving averages above are broken, the decline will extend to the second support near 102.3K. And around 102.3K, you can focus on buying opportunities.
5.14 Master’s segment pre-buried:
Long entry reference: long in batches within the range of 102300-103300, target: 104600-105100
Short entry reference: short in batches within the range of 104600-105100, target: 103300-102300
If you really want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market movements and jump to conclusions. This market is full of performers, taking screenshots of long positions today and summarizing short positions tomorrow, appearing to 'catch the top and bottom every time', but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly noteworthy blogger’s trading logic must be consistent, coherent, and withstand scrutiny, not just a show when the market moves. Don't be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; only through long-term observation and deep understanding can you discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
