Tonight's ETH battlefield, every K-line drips with blood. When the Bollinger Band on the 1-hour chart is as narrow as a blade, and the price is playing dead at $2561.70, I tell you with 8 years of liquidation experience: this is not a calm surface of a lake, but a 'death shock' slaughterhouse carefully arranged by the dog traders.
1. The Deadly Deception of Technical Indicators: From Bollinger Bands to MACD's Hunting Script. 1. The Meat Grinder Trap of Bollinger Bands. The current width of the Bollinger Band has shrunk to 0.8%, tighter than the mining machine shutdown price. This 'narrow suffocation' market has a historical reoccurrence rate of 92%—on May 25, ETH suddenly dropped 10% in a nearly identical channel, leading to over 100,000 long positions being liquidated. Now the price sits at the mid-band of $2546.17, with dog traders holding over $10 billion in liquidation orders, just waiting for the 20:30 US CPI data to pull the trigger. 2. The False Golden Cross Massacre of MACD. A +7.80 MACD red column appears to signal a bullish rise, but in reality, it is an upgraded version of the ancestral pig-killing plate. On May 13, after a +9.2 'inducing long column', $80 million in long positions were liquidated in half an hour, while this time the value is lower and the duration shorter, likely a 'fake golden cross burying people 2.0'—the dog traders use small buy orders to push up the indicators, while actually laying a trap in perpetual contracts.
2. The Bloody Truth of On-chain Data: Analysis of Three Critical Life-and-Death Points. 1. $2500: The Paper-thin Graveyard Support. On the surface, 1.8 million ETH staked constitutes a 'faith support', but the on-chain depth chart exposes a fatal crisis: $230 million in short positions are lurking below $2450, and once it breaks, it will trigger a '3.12 style cut' chain reaction—on March 12, 2024, ETH plummeted from $3200 to $1600, following the same volume-price structure. 2. $2587: The Air Force's Coffin Fund. Some contract data shows that in the $2580-$2600 range, there are $150 million in short positions, and the dog traders have recently indulged in the 'false breakout and then dump' routine: first using small amounts of funds to break resistance, inducing long positions to be liquidated, then using large sell orders to smash through support. This tactic previously harvested over $200 million in a single day during the SOL market on April 28. 3. The Ant Egg Crisis of Trading Volume. The trading volume has dropped 47% in the past 5 hours, reaching a new low for 2025. Behind the collective silence of large funds is fear of the 20:30 US CPI data—market expectations are for a core CPI of 3.4%, and if it exceeds expectations by 0.1%, ETH will trigger a 'urination collapse mechanism', plummeting 5-8% within 15 minutes.
3. The Life and Death Operator's Notes: The Ultimate Strategy for Spot and Contracts. A Survival Guide for Spot Traders.
Take immediate action: Cut your position in half at the current price of $2561.70, keep some bullets to wait for the $2400 'golden pit' (historical data shows that the probability of a first pullback to the mid-band after a Bollinger Band breakout is 78%);
Psychological Preparation: Give up the fantasy of 'selling at the highest point', the dog traders' 'death shock' specifically treats greed; preserving your capital is more important than making huge profits from bottom fishing.
Contract Dog's Killer Strategy.
Long Position Entry Condition: Breakout with volume above $2587.39 (requires hourly trading volume over $5 billion), chase long and set a stop loss of $30, target $2650;
Short Position Entry Condition: Break below $2504.95 (Bollinger Band lower limit), short and place a breakeven order at $2450, profit from the inertia of 'liquidation waterfall'.
4. To Those Who Are Trapped: Survival Rules in Confusion.
If you are deeply trapped, remember three 'no's:
Do not average down: Any increase in positions before the Bollinger Band breaks is just providing ammunition to the dog traders.
Do not watch the market: Every K-line movement amplifies anxiety; after setting a stop loss, stay away from the screen.
Do not follow trades: There are no 'saviors' in the crypto world, those who seek help end up as the ones taking the losses.
There is only one true bottom signal: When the Bollinger Band opens upward and the trading volume exceeds 200% of the daily average, that is the moment for the bulls to sound the counterattack horn. Before this, preserving strength is more important than any operation.
Conclusion: The Scythe of the Dog Traders and the Muzzle of the Hunters.
The crypto world has never been a one-sided battlefield of technical analysis, but a gladiatorial arena of human weaknesses. While you are staring at the K-line dreaming of getting rich, the dog traders are calculating your liquidation price; when you panic and sell at a loss, they are collecting bloody chips at low prices. Eight years of liquidation experience tells me: the only rule to survive in the 'death shock' is to be calmer than the dog traders and more restrained than the retail investors. ##加密圆桌会议要点 ##策略交易
