When Ethereum skyrocketed from $1800 to $2700, the market was in a frenzy; however, when significant good news came from US-China tariff negotiations, the rally abruptly halted. The recent spike and pullback once again confirm the iron rule of the crypto world - 'buy the expectation, sell the fact'. At the crossroads of macro policy and regulatory game, the crypto market stands at a new turning point. 1. Market review: Rational return after the frenzy 1. Ethereum's 'emotional roller coaster' Last week's consecutive surges can be described as 'irrational exuberance':

  • The market has overdrawn its gains under the 'US-China tariff easing expectations', with ETH rising by 50% in a single week;

  • However, when the good news officially materializes, funds choose to lock in profits, with a pullback exceeding 12% in the last two days, confirming the 'sell the news' rule.

2. The oscillation dilemma of BTC

  • Short-term resistance: Strong resistance at the four-hour level of $104,500, with volume-price divergence indicating exhaustion of bullish momentum;

  • Key support:

  • First support level: $101,500 psychological barrier;

  • Second support level: $98,500 trend line (critical technical level);

2. Macroeconomic fog: Collapse of rate cut expectations and policy uncertainty

1. The Fed's 'dovish turnaround'

  • The market's probability forecast for a June rate cut plummeted from 100% to 0%, with only a 35% probability for a July rate cut;

  • Core contradiction: Inflation stickiness (April CPI 4.9%) versus the expectation of a soft landing for the economy.

2. When will the money printer restart?

  • If the Fed delays rate cuts, the crypto market may fall into a 'no incremental funds' stock game;

  • Historical data: In the 2024 Fed rate pause cycle, BTC's quarterly volatility decreased by 28%.

3. Three key clues for the next three months

1. June Fed meeting: The fuse for the bull-bear showdown

  • Scenario 1 (Probability 40%): Cut rates by 25 basis points under tariff pressure

  • Impact: Liquidity-driven rise, BTC may challenge $120,000, ETH targets $3,000;

  • Scenario 2 (Probability 60%): Maintain interest rates and release hawkish signals

  • Impact: The market may test BTC's ultimate support level, replaying the 'policy kill' market of November 2024.

2. SEC's ruling on ETH ETF: The key to a hundred billion dollar market

  • If the ETF staking function is approved:

  • Expected to attract $50-80 billion in institutional funds (referencing GBTC historical data);

  • Ethereum's market cap may exceed $500 billion, driving the Layer2 ecosystem explosion.

  • Risk point: The SEC may follow a 'gradual approval' model for BTC ETF, initially restricting staking scale.

3. The US stablecoin bill: The 'compliance breakthrough point' for on-chain assets

  • If the bill passes:

  • Stablecoins like USDT and USDC will receive national regulatory endorsement, with on-chain trading volume possibly increasing by 300%;

  • Compliant on-chain assets (such as bond tokens, stock NFTs) will become a new hotspot, with top exchanges increasing market share by 20%.

  • Potential resistance: Regulatory discrepancies among states (such as New York's opposition to algorithmic stablecoins) may delay the bill's implementation.

4. Retail survival strategies: Farming mindset vs. gold rush mentality

1. Position management: Keep enough cash to deal with black swan events

  • Conservative allocation: 60% cash + 20% BTC + 15% ETH + 5% compliant on-chain assets;

  • Aggressive allocation: 40% cash + 30% BTC + 25% ETH + 5% high-volatility altcoins (such as OP, ARB).

2. Key operational nodes

  • Short-term (1 week): Reduce positions if ETH falls below $2400, increase positions if BTC holds above $103,000;

  • Medium-term (1 month): Adjust positions three days before the June 15 Fed meeting, and follow trends to increase positions after the meeting;

  • Long-term (3 months): Buy on dips in ETF concept stocks (such as COIN, GBTC) and compliant stablecoin sectors.

3. Risk warning

  • Stay away from altcoins that have 'realized gains' (such as previously surging MEME coins), and beware of the risk of a 50% drop in a single day;

  • Closely monitor USDT premium rate (below 99.5% indicates capital withdrawal) and whale address movements (transfers exceeding 100,000 ETH need caution).

Conclusion: Sowing hope amidst uncertainty

The current crypto market faces both the 'fog' of Fed policy reversals and the 'dawn' of regulatory compliance. Just as farmers must wait for the seasons, investors must abandon the 'get rich overnight' gold rush mentality, positioning core assets during pullbacks and accumulating chips amidst fluctuations. Remember: The real bull market always belongs to patient sowers, not anxious gold rushers.

Follow me for weekly updates (tracking key clues in the crypto market) to help you grasp trends in complex situations. When others panic and sell, we will ultimately reap the seasonal rewards through rational positioning.

##币安Alpha上新 ##代币发射平台竞争加剧